Cape Town - The Western Cape government is anticipating that the cumulative death toll in the province as a result of Covid-19 could be as high as 9 300.
This was revealed on Thursday in the weekly digicon with Premier Alan Winde, Health MEC Dr Nomafrench Mbombo, head of Health Department Dr Keith Cloete and public health medicine specialist Professor Andrew Boulle.
Winde's team provided an update on province's scenario planning for the pandemic, projecting on the number of hospitalisations expected during the course of the pandemic and what would be required by the healthcare system to respond at the peak.
The premier said that the scenarios presented drew mainly on international data and experiences to better understand the trajectory of the virus in the provincial context and that these projections would be updated continuously as more evidence becomes available.
Calibrated projections show that instead of the province peaking in June, it will now peak toward the beginning of July 2020.
Approximately 7 800 beds are now projected to be needed at the peak of the pandemic, whereas the province previously worked on a 6 200-bed requirement.
"We have also taken several steps to ensure our modelling and projections are of the highest possible standard. We have been engaging with both the Actuarial Society of SA (Assa) and the National Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, to compare our assumptions and projections for the peak of the pandemic in the Western Cape," Winde said.
He emphasised that modelling was based on a number of assumptions, and therefore is subject to change.
"We recognise that the ideal scenario would be to wait until we are closer to the projected divergence point in the models to see if this additional investment will be required. Unfortunately, a wait-and-see approach will not be possible because the different modelling projections have curves that are largely similar up until a very distinct point, at which they quickly move away from each other.
"Additional beds require additional doctors and healthcare staff. The CTICC temporary hospital will have more than 900 staff. Finding additional staff is most probably the most difficult part of any additional scale-up. We must also factor in the fact that some healthcare workers will get infected with Covid-19 and they will not be able to work," Winde said.
"The private sector has additional capacity, but it is costly. This would require significant additional resources.
"We will provide further updates on our modelling, projections and further interventions taken following a number of important engagements over the next week. Our priority remains being fully open and transparent with you during this difficult time," said Winde.
The province's adjusted health strategy will focus on protecting high-risk individuals, including people older than 55 and those with underlying conditions. He added that the targeted hot spot interventions, including community screening and testing, have already been repurposed to meet this need.
Cape Argus