CAPE TOWN - The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) has released a new report that found decreased severity of disease in the omicron-driven fourth wave in the City of Tshwane, with fewer deaths, ICU admissions and a shorter length of stay.
The first case of omicron in the country was documented in the City of Tshwane on November 9 last year.
In the study, titled “Decreased severity of disease during the first global omicron variant Covid-19 outbreak in a large hospital in Tshwane, South Africa”, authors including Dr Fareed Abdullah, Professor Jonny Myers, Professor Deb Basu and others compared 466 Covid-19 admissions in the first 33 days since the commencement of the omicron-driven fourth wave.
In addition, a snapshot analysis of 98 patients occupying Covid-19 beds in the hospital at peak bed occupancy were reviewed for severity of illness, primary indication for admission, oxygen supplementation level and self-reported vaccination and prior Covid-19 infection status.
“During the resurgence in Tshwane, we noticed a difference in the clinical picture of Covid-19 ward patients compared with prior Covid-19 waves. The omicron outbreak spread and declined in the City of Tshwane with unprecedented speed peaking within four weeks of its commencement. Hospital admissions increased rapidly and began to decline within a period of 33 days,” the report read.
“Peak bed occupancy was about half that of the third (Delta) wave. The patient age distribution was younger than before, with fewer ICU admissions and deaths and a shorter length of stay. A third of deaths resulted from a cause other than Covid-19, and there were no paediatric deaths or ICU admissions related to severe Covid-19 disease.”
They added that 63% of Covid-19 patients in the snapshot at peak bed occupancy in the week of December 11, were in hospital for an alternative primary diagnosis, and were ‘incidental Covid’ patients as they were diagnosed as the result of hospital admission procedures, rather than having the typical clinical profile or meeting a case definition for Covid.
“A similar profile of patients is being seen in Covid-19 wards in the Western Cape Province of South Africa and anecdotal reports of similar patterns have (been) described by one of South Africa’s largest private hospital groups,” the authors said.
“There are clear signs that case and admission rates in South Africa may decline further over the next few weeks. If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates suggesting that omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the Covid pandemic ushering in its endemic phase.”
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