Cape Town – With the next national election two years away, new Ipsos data shows the ANC is now firmly establishing itself in the “less than 50% of the vote” category while other parties have a lot of work to do to impress voters come 2024.
Ipsos undertook a nationally representative study from 14 May to 3 July 2022 in the homes and home languages of 3 600 randomly selected South Africans, 15 years and older.
To analyse the political results, Ipsos said the opinions of younger respondents were filtered out and the results from the remaining 3 459 respondents were analysed.
“It is important to note that these results are representative of all those eligible to vote. Those registered to vote with the IEC form a much smaller group of between 27 and 28 million South Africans.
“This poll is thus intended as a gauge of the current political sentiment and not in any way a prediction of things to come,” Ipsos said.
When it comes to the question “If there were national elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation will you vote for?”, the interviewer handed an electronic interviewing device to the respondent who can then indicate his/her choice of political party on a page resembling a ballot paper, in an imitation of a secret vote.
“We believe this aids respondents to give honest answers, without influence from others, and it empowers those in very traditional, prescriptive or paternalistic households to express their own opinions,” Ipsos said.
Forty-two percent of respondents voted for the ANC, while 11% voted for the DA, 9% voted for the EFF, 3% for ActionSA, 2% for IFP and FF+ and 1% for the ACDP. Four percent voted for other political parties.
10% of respondents said they wouldn’t vote, 4% were not registered to vote, and 5% said they did not know who they would vote for.
Ipsos asked all respondents to give an opinion on each of six political parties. Seven different opinions are put to respondents. These opinions encompass a spectrum of views, from “I reject this party completely and on principle” to “I will definitely vote for this party”.
Looking at the combination of the “definitely vote” and “perhaps vote” opinions, all political parties, except the ANC, show a healthy potential support – more than that received on the ballot papers.
According to the results, the potential support for the ANC is 5 percentage points lower than the 42% achieved on the ballot paper.
“As an opposition political party, you need to prove you are a credible alternative without complaining about everything the government does or does not do.
“Provide voters with other workable alternatives and be another option – a political party needs to be a positive force. This attracts support”, said Mari Harris, Ipsos SSA Knowledge Director.
Cape Times