Nkosikhulule Nyembezi
Cape Town - A few days ago, I carried out a small experiment.
I sent almost identical requests to five friends and relatives in different parts of KwaZulu-Natal.
I asked them whether their households hold strategic liquor reserves in the wake of the continuing Covid-19 lockdown restrictions.
Yes: our household keeps stocks equivalent to 90 days of net purchases.
I also asked them whether they hold strategic food reserves in the wake of the unfolding unrest in which more than 25 trucks are reported to have been set alight in KwaZulu-Natal as protesters calling for the release of he jailed former president Jacob Zuma ramped up their campaign last weekend.
No: they aren’t necessary, because “our area has a highly resilient food supply chain”.
Since the introduction of the Covid-19 restrictions, my friends and relatives all over the country treat liquor as a strategic asset. This must be held in stock to sustain them for the duration of the government-imposed liquor ban and the trap of paying exorbitant liquor prices in the informal market. But they have never foreseen that there will be food shortages or food prices will go up considerably because of the disruption of the supply chain by pockets of political unrest.
So what happens now that their trusted “highly resilient food supply chain” is fast breaking due to blockaded major highways and intersections and the looting of freight trucks by Zuma supporters – under the banner of “Free Jacob Zuma” campaign?
It won’t, some promised.
Our risk assessments show there will not be an overall shortage of food in the province, whether or not Zuma stays in jail for the full 15 months or if he is released on parole.
But when I pressed them to show me these risk assessments, the plural turned out to be misleading.
There’s just one assessment: the ANC-led government will find a political solution to the crisis threatening its political fortunes in the October 27 local government elections.
When I reminded them of what occurred in Lesotho and what is occurring in eSwatini as a result of political unrest, they were shocked.
Shockingly, their confidence has since disappeared. This is grim enough.
It suggests that the flow of freight through the Durban and Richards Bay ports could be significantly reduced, while trucks travelling in either direction through the road networks in the province could be delayed by several days – a big problem for fresh food.
We rely on the smooth flow of freight for most of our bread, milk, onions, mushrooms, tomatoes and salad, and for a critical portion of many other vegetables and fruits.
In the dead of a series of localised blockades, with trucks burning or held hostage on the roads or stuck in warehouses, the price of fresh produce could go through the roof in many parts of the country.
If you can find preferred fresh produce at all.
The brinkmanship between Zuma supporters and our paralysed government, intended to wrongfoot President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office in the ANC and in government, has instead wrongfooted our own households, hauliers, and traders – as many have been unable to prepare the next family meal with confidence.
All this happened soon after the Household Affordability Index reported that the average cost of a household food basket in South Africa increased by 3.9%, or R159.37, in April to R4 198.93 compared to a month earlier – the highest level since September 2020.
The index tracks food price data from 44 supermarkets and 30 butcheries, mostly in the townships of Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Pietermaritzburg and Springbok.
Additional fuel and electricity costs incurred for using diversion routes and for extra days of cold storage run through the entire economy and the food value chains.
We already know from the annual Statistics SA’s General Household Survey that poor households spend a proportionally high percentage of their income on basic food items, and therefore any interruption of supply and sharp price hikes will hit those in poverty first – and worst.
Is the destruction likely to be confined to fresh food in KwaZulu-Natal or fast spreading into other areas of our lives and in other parts of the country?
With neither Luthuli House nor the Union Building demonstrating a strategic risk assessment and a decisive intervention to clamp down on what Mondli Makhanya described as “fires of tribalism”, we have already seen that the arson and traffic congestions are spilling over into other provinces where Andile Lungisa, Tony Yengeni, Ace Magashule or other Zuma supporters live.
Without testing every link in the chain, the government has no grounds for dismissing the threat.
While it now seems almost certain that more and more communities will face a dearth of fresh bread, milk, fruit and vegetables, could there also be oxygen deficits in the social, economic, and political manifolds of our democracy? Could there be any denial that the ANC has become a political liability? Only voters will tell.
ANC unity is not a principle that means anything to most of the public.
If what I call “living with the Zuma verdict cliché” causes further economic and political rupture, the shops are half-empty and even the grocery cupboards don’t have enough replenishment supplies, there is a real prospect of a national political instability.
But search as you may, you will find no one in Luthuli House or the Union Buildings who gives a damn.
Not even Ramaphosa, whose future in the party and in government depends on the confidence of the soon-to-be-hungry masses and have their commuting disrupted.
Of course, the last thing Ramaphosa wants is a challenge in the form of widespread political unrest.
The road to his second office term is hard enough without stopping to fight party factions along the way.
Then again, that is one detour successful leaders have found themselves taking.
He better face up boldly to the challenge or count himself as another leader whose presidency shall be remembered for ending abruptly.
* Nyembezi is a policy analyst and human rights activist
Cape Times