Mushtak Parker
Cape Town - Perhaps South Africans can get some consolation from the fact that the looting and riots that dogged KwaZulu-Natal and pockets of Gauteng two weeks ago which claimed at least 337 lives, is not unique to them or the country.
That is of little comfort to the relatives of those who perished, those whose businesses were looted and torched; and for those who as a result have lost their jobs and their livelihoods disrupted.
Lest government propagandists or their detractors are too complacent for their own convenience, the latest Global Peace Index (GPI) 2021, published by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) and which covers 99.7% of the world’s population, conjures up a sobering scenario.
Civil unrest and violence are a universal phenomenon – the number of riots, general strikes and anti-government demonstrations around the world increased by a staggering 244% in the past decade. Terrorism and civil unrest are the biggest contributors to the deterioration in peacefulness, with no sign currently that this trend is abating.
The IMF a few days ago too warned that the short to medium-term economic costs of social unrest can be large, especially in emerging economies. It disrupts economic activity, adversely affects GDP growth, and dampens consumer and investor confidence.
The experience of violence is highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where there are five countries where over half the population had a recent experience of violence or know someone who had. Namibia for once trumps with the highest rate in the world at 63% followed by South Africa, Lesotho, Liberia, and Zambia.
South Africa is ranked the 123rd most peaceful country in the GPI (out of 163) with Iceland, New Zealand and Denmark the three most peaceful countries and Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and South Sudan the four most violent ones.
South Africa scores a poor 30th GPI regional SSA ranking (out of 44 countries) with Mauritius, Ghana and Botswana the most peaceful and South Sudan, Somalia, DRC, CAR, Mali and Nigeria the most violent. Mozambique with its 4-year insurgency in the mineral and gas-rich northern Cabo Delgado province, and eSwatini with its recent deadly protests against the excesses of its absolute monarchy, score way above South Africa. The only “good” news is that the murder rate in South Africa declined by 50% in 2020, largely attributed to the pandemic lockdowns and fears of contagion.
South Africa again features prominently in yet another measure of metrics of shame. Some 57.9% of them experienced violence of some sort in 2019 – second only to Namibia’s 63.3%. Similarly, 79.3% of them are very worried about violence and unrest – second only to Brazil’s 82.7%. And 58.1% of them feel that violence and unrest is the greatest risk to their safety – third only to Brazil at 63.3% and Afghanistan at 71.8%.
Even here Covid is having a laugh! “In virtually every region of the world,” warns IEP, “demonstrators and unrest are making a comeback. Causes range from frustration over governments’ handling of the Covid crisis to mounting inequality and corruption – factors that tend to heighten existing tensions and disparities and have led to social unrest in the aftermath of previous pandemics”.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s call to South Africans in his update on the security situation, to “remain vigilant and resist any efforts to incite further violence” is spot on. But blaming the unrest purely on those “using the pretext of a political grievance … to provoke a popular insurrection” does not suffice.
He did acknowledge that the government “were poorly prepared for an orchestrated campaign of public violence, destruction and sabotage”, and the security forces “did not have the capabilities and plans in place to respond swiftly and decisively”.
He fell short by not owning up to his administration’s shortcomings and failures on several policy fronts over the past three years. These include unemployment raging at over 36%; public sector wage inflation; a bloated bureaucracy thanks to cadre deployment further exacerbated by ANC factionalism; burgeoning government and SOE debt; confusion over land reforms and EWC; a non-coherent agricultural policy; under-involvement of the private sector; lack of respect for the rule of law by self-entitled officials and party apparatchiks; failure to lift millions out of abject poverty; and failure to contain, let alone eradicate, corruption and cronyism.
While Ramaphosa’s initial response to the pandemic was praised even by his political foes, his government’s subsequent shambolic handling of vaccine procurement and vaccination roll out exacted a heavy health, social and economic toll on ordinary South Africans. The pandemic merely compounded growing fault lines in government policies, albeit many were inherited from the near-decade of the Zuma kleptocracy.
Some argue that the above led to a perfect storm which unleashed the conditions for the failed insurrection. Radicals and revolutionaries are past masters at exploiting such vulnerabilities. Just as well in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the pro-Zuma agent provocateurs proved inept relying on “cannon fodder” – a motley crew of disaffected and urban poor and opportunistic criminal elements.
I shudder to think what could have happened had the “enemy within” succeeded that may well have resulted in a full-scale civil war!
How ironic that the unrest underwhelmed commemorating this year’s Nelson Mandela International Day 2021 on July 18 – a day on which the world is supposed to reflect on Madiba’s legacy. After all this year’s theme “One Hand Can Feed Another” could not be more apt in a poverty multiplier pandemic paradigm which neatly complements that very ethos of ubuntu.
Even from his grave, Madiba’s legacy rings loud and clear to the inglorious insurrectionists: “It is easy to break down and destroy. The heroes are those who make peace and build!”
* Parker is an economist and writer based in London.
Cape Times