Durban — Our beloved province of KwaZulu-Natal, a place revered for its rich history, proud people, and economic prosperity, finds itself on a knife edge as the ANC gears up for its provincial conference in Durban next week.
Never has the province been at such a crossroads, even after the most gruelling two years that the country has ever endured. The province finds itself in its worst state, a shadow of its former self.
After being crippled by the Covid-19 pandemic throughout 2020 and 2021, the province also had to grapple with civil unrest after a political decision was made by Constitutional Court justices to arrest and incarcerate former president Jacob Zuma.
As a result of the civil unrest, the province lost billions of rand in infrastructure damage, and the looting of businesses was unprecedented.
To compound matters, the devastation caused by the recent floods has resulted in yet more infrastructure damage, costing many more billions, not to mention the tragic death of up to 500 people.
These three distinct calamitous periods have resulted in massive administrative and political ripple effects, sparking in their wake an unemployment epidemic with about 70% of our youth and more than half of the working-age population in the province, jobless.
Communities are now continually ravaged by heinous crimes and drug abuse, and law enforcement agencies, being under-resourced, struggle to deal with these challenges.
To add salt to the wounds, there is a never-ending blockade of the N3 highway around the Mooi River Toll Plaza, which throttles the national economy’s imports and exports.
KZN has been reduced to a donor-dependent province under the current administration and remains in a perpetual state of disaster.
On the political front, there has been upheaval, too, with the ANC suffering a humiliating loss in the local government elections, losing many municipalities to the IFP, especially across the Tugela River.
For the first time since the dawn of democracy, the DA snatched the uMngeni Municipality from the ANC.
With just over 900 branches, and a significant number of voters, the province remains the biggest ANC stronghold, so there is much at stake next week when the ANC in the province will elect its leadership who will take the branches forward to the increasingly important 55th ANC national conference, in December this year.
Historically seen as the heart and soul of the ANC, and from the sheer size of the number of supporters in the province, many argue that the KZN election process is now “do or die” for the ANC, for if the province can get its act together it could save the party nationally from extinction.
Although not taking anything away from anyone, especially the current provincial leadership led by Sihle Zikalala, who have had their hands full in dealing with one crisis after another, it would be fair and sensible to conclude that drastic change is needed to return KZN to its former glory.
A seismic shift is required from a governance and political party perspective. If the ANC is serious about retaining KZN as a governing party, something drastic needs to happen in terms of thinking, action, and implementation. This is something that the branches and delegates need to seriously consider when attending the provincial conference in Durban next week.
There are those who have come out in public and raised their hands, such as businessman Sandile Zungu and current ANC treasurer in KwaZulu-Natal, Nomusa Dube-Ncube. Pundits have also speculated that, if combined, both could revive the party and save it from losing the province in the 2024 election.
This view is also supported by political analyst Professor Sipho Seepe, who gave his analysis to Daily News political reporter Willem Phungula before the party’s crucial conference next week.
Seepe, who is also deputy vice-chancellor at the University of Zululand, said that if the two could enter into a deal for the sake of saving the party from extinction in the province, where one would be a chairperson of the party and the other a premier, perhaps the party could be resuscitated.
Speaking to Phungula, he added that although it would depend on them as well as the people advising them, for him, to revive the branches, Zungu would make a better premier while Dube-Ncube remained grounded as chairperson.
Others, however, are of the view that the roles should be reversed, where Zungu focuses on rebuilding the party while Dube-Ncube leads the government through her decades of experience as an ambassador and MEC in various high-ranking portfolios in KZN.
Seepe said his viewpoint was based on what Zungu had once said, where he was quoted as saying he was not interested in a government position if he got elected.
Seepe said that showed that he was flexible and seemed to be a person who was not power-hungry and greedy, which meant he was willing to share command and influence.
The contest for the all-powerful position of chairperson is, therefore, expected to be between Zikalala, Zungu and Dube-Ncube. All three are expected to be nominated from the floor at the conference next week.
“My view is that if the two can enter into such a pact they would appeal to many people and possibly defeat Zikalala’s slate because if they go to the conference disjointed as they are now, the chances are that many may opt for Zikalala and retain him in his current position. For me he should not be underestimated,” said Seepe.
His sentiments on Zungu were echoed by another political analyst, Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, who said Zungu may be an ideal candidate for the embattled ANC since he came with no political baggage.
He said the ANC needs someone who was not tainted, either by corruption or party factionalism and who understood the movement like Zungu. Mngomezulu is a professor of political science at the University of the Western Cape in Cape Town.
On Dube-Ncube, both analysts believe she has an advantage as a woman, enhanced by also not being embroiled in corruption scandals and factionalism.
On Zikalala, they agree that he remains a powerful force who enjoys support, but does face criticism of his stance on former president Jacob Zuma, as to whether he supported him or not.
Both analysts said Zikalala’s perceived wishy-washy position on Zuma could work against him because he was viewed as someone who had abandoned him, while in the eyes of many in the province, he was being persecuted by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s faction.
“You will recall that there was a time where the ANC’s National Executive Committee directed the party members in the province not to go and support Zuma during his string of court appearances. Although he somersaulted and attended court appearances, the perception among branches is that he abandoned Zuma,” says Seepe.
Whatever the outcome of this leadership contest, the fate and future of KZN hangs in the balance, as does that of the country at large. Next week’s battle royale is a taste of things to come.
Ayanda Mdluli is the editor of the Daily News
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