By: Tom Krisher
New York Motor Show - When Toyota aired a Super Bowl television ad featuring a surprisingly quick Prius gas-electric hybrid eluding police, it marked a turning point for the car industry.
For years, carmakers pushed fuel efficiency to sell hybrid and electric vehicles. Now, in an era of cheap petrol in the United States, the message is: These cars are faster and quieter than their petrol-powered counterparts. And, yes, you still save on fuel.
Mike O'Brien, vice president of product planning for Hyundai, said: “They've graduated out of the class of something that's a bit of an oddity to drive. Now it's all about making these cars better.”
Until now, hybrids and electrics have largely appealed to the environmentally-conscious crowd. The cars cost thousands extra and, although drivers eventually got their money back in fuel savings, they lacked the power and handling of combustion-engined rivals. Electrics also suffered from driver concern that the battery could run out of juice on a trip.
Now, the tide is slowly turning. General Motors and Tesla will bring electric vehicles to market in 2017 priced around $30 000 (R464 000), including a $7 500 (R116 000) federal tax credit. Battery range has improved significantly, experts expect petrol prices to eventually climb higher, and the advent of autonomous vehicles favours motors powered by electricity rather than petrol.
At the Javits Centre on Wednesday, Hyundai and Toyota showed off new electric and hybrid vehicles, with presenters from both companies touting them as “fun to drive”.
Hyundai unveiled battery, petrol-electric hybrid and plug-in versions of a new car called the Ioniq (the lead picture in our gallery), while Toyota showed the plug-in Prius Prime, second in our line-up, which can drive 35km on battery power before the petrol-electric power system kicks in. The electric range is double the old version.
Hyundai Ioniq offers 3 shades of ‘green’
The Prius hybrid, powered by petrol and electric motors, started the alternative fuel movement in the United States in 2000. Toyota deliberately made it look different than other cars, knowing that buyers wanted to make a statement about being environmentally friendly. Other companies set their green cars apart as well.
Even though sales grew as manufacturers added models, they never really caught on, partly because of the improved fuel economy of petrol-powered vehicles. At their peak in 2013, with petrol averaging $3.50 a gallon (R9.14 a litre), Americans bought only 341 000 hybrids and electrics, about 2.2 percent of total US car sales, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Companies spent millions developing the cars, taking losses to meet government fuel economy standards that gradually increase and require the new-car fleet to average 4.34 litre per 100km by 2025.
As petrol prices fell below $2 per gallon (R6 a litre), sales of hybrids and electrics dropped further. In 2015 car companies had 16 hybrid and electric models on sale in the United States but sales sank to a little more than 274 000.
CHEAP TO RUN
All of this makes for a bad environment to roll out more hybrids and electrics; nevertheless, carmakers will press on, now selling them on style, acceleration, handling and reliability.
Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said Wednesday: “Electric vehicles have few moving parts, so they need far less service, no oil changes, and they are extremely reliable.”
Karl Brauer, senior auto analyst for Kelley Blue Book, said electricity outpaced petrol as a power source in just about every area.
Advancements have made batteries smaller, increased their storage capacity and brought prices down. Electric motors can pull away faster than combustion engines and hybrids can power wheels with both electric and petrol engines for better acceleration. Electrics also are far quieter.
Yet at $2 per gallon (R6 a litre), it would take more than 10 years to recoup the $3720 (R57 500) price difference between a base model Toyota Camry hybrid and its four-cylinder petrol-engined sibling.
But that's not always a fair comparison, said Stephanie Brinley, senior analyst for IHS Automotive. Hybrids often come with more equipment and are comparable to better-equipped, pricier models, she said.
Brauer said the coming debuts of the Chevrolet Bolt (third in the gallery) and Tesla Model 3, which will have 320km of electric range, should make battery electric vehicles more appealing, even with cheap petrol. A lack of charging stations, once thought to limit adoption of electrics, becomes almost moot because of the longer range, he said.
Self-driving cars, which would use electric motors that can be recharged without humans, should also boost sales.
‘TOUGH TO GO BACK TO PETROL’
Brauer thinks electrics and hybrids will make up more than half of US sales in the next 12 years as SUVs and trucks get the new systems. Hyundai's O'Brien thinks the shift will happen sooner.
Any spike in petrol prices will only help. The International Energy Agency in February predicted oil prices would more than double by 2020 because drillers were cutting investments due to current low prices, which would eventually reduce supply.
But even with cheap oil, Mick Roberts, a 46-year-old hydrogen engineer from Lowell, Indiana, bought a 2015 Chevrolet Volt hybrid in October when petrol was $2.20 a gallon (R7.60 a litre). He got a good deal on an outgoing model, but Roberts says he likes the smooth-shifting, quiet motor and quick acceleration.
“It would be tough to go back to petrol,” he said.
Still, the car companies know it will take a lot of marketing to get mass adoption.
Toyota US general manager Bill Fay said there would be more chapters in the Prius police chase ad series, including one for the new plug-in.
“The early adopters understand the differences in the technology,” he said. “But with the mainstream customers, we all still have a ways to go to explain the benefits.”
AP