President Zuma cannot preside over a divided ruling party and appear a unifier and a statesman at a State of the Nation Address, writes Dumisani Hlophe.
The state of society is predominantly determined by the status of the ruling party. Linked to this is the extent the president of the ruling party, who is also the state president, would enjoy authority in delivering the State of the Nation Address, and is partly dependent on the perceived role he plays in his own party.
If the ruling party president plays a unifying and statesmanlike role within his own party, he is likely to enjoy legitimacy from broader society. There is a direct correlation between the internal politics of the ruling party, its key players, and how society views the ruling party and its president, and the broader hopes and fears of society.
The current state, character and direction of the ANC bears directly on South Africans’ sentiments of either fear, or aspiration.
The ANC’s character is one of a party leadership at war with each other for power and control of state resources. These unfold through various components of the organisation, such as it leagues, through litigation against comrades, and alliances within the private sector.
So, when President Jacob Zuma delivers the State of the Nation Address in the National Assembly on Thursday, his speech, aura and demeanour will be drowned in this factional ANC self-destructive leadership contest.
Rather than a unifying figure, Zuma will be located within some faction in the party’s leadership contestation. Thus he will not be seen to be speaking for the entire ruling party and, by extension, neither the whole cabinet of the government he leads.
Over time the ANC has missed the fact that what happens within the ruling party is inherently duplicated within the state apparatus. A factional, divided ANC leadership at war with each other, will see such factionalism fought through state institutions.
Thus, Zuma cannot preside over a divided ruling party and appear a unifier and a statesman at a State of the Nation address. From the head of a divided ruling party, he will appear also as a head of a divided cabinet. Thus the rallying theme of unity as determined for this year is unlikely to hold.
It is not holding from the ANC’s own January statement, and consequently, it will still not hold when Zuma drives it as state president through the State of the Nation Address.
Given the ANC’s loss of key metros in the last local government elections, Zuma’s address will be delivered against a background of a party that is in decline. A party that is losing power, influence, and a leadership role in society.
The ANC is increasingly co-governing with the opposition, albeit at various levels. As Zuma addresses the National Assembly, a question will silently be asked as to for how long will an ANC president deliver the State of the Nation Address in the light of dwindling support.
Ironically, the main purpose of the address is to inspire society and build confidence. It is meant to provide a developmental progress report, acknowledge challenges, but assure society that the government is driving a progressive developmental agenda. For this to be convincing to society, the ruling party as the key driver must be seen to be relatively united and focused and carry the image of a performing government.
The ability of the president to deliver a uniting and confidence building address is not achieved at the actual event of the speech, but substantively through governance of both the ruling party and the state. The State of the Nation Address therefore is not an event but a substantive process built throughout the year.
Here are some ironies: in the process of delivering a national unifying speech, Zuma will address society on the backdrop of the ANC national executive committee having debated a motion of no confidence in him.
Senior members of the ANC in the ruling party’s highest decision-making structure want him to leave his position. And he will be presenting the address to the backdrop of some ANC veterans calling for his resignation.
Motions of no confidence from the opposition political parties do not matter much here. This is the expected part of their job. But similar calls from within the ruling party itself are damning for a leader responsible to inspire a nation.
As indicated earlier, a divided ANC leadership, is a divided cabinet and government. There is a very thin line between the party and society in this country. Those that are organisationally active within the party, equally hold senior state positions.
The senior ANC figures that called for Zuma to resign at an ANC national executive committee meeting are also cabinet ministers. In other words, the tensions in the party are also playing themselves out at the state level.
There have been significant calls by some elements of the ANC Youth League and the ANC Women's League for Zuma to reshuffle the cabinet.
So, in another irony, the president will be delivering a progressive unifying message from a divided cabinet, calling upon South Africans to unite and work together.
He will undoubtedly encourage South Africans to collaborate their efforts in contributing to the goals of the National Development Plan. Yet it is increasingly clear that he has difficulties with his own finance minister, Pravin Gordhan. This is the one minister that the president should be closest to.
But then this State of the Nation Address is not so much about government performance and plans for the future, but the self-destructive politics of the ruling party, which are replicated in cabinet and reverberate across government.
The work of the technocrats will be overshadowed by the leadership deficiency that the country is suffering. This deficiency both at the party and the state levels, carries the danger of turning the substance of the State of the Nation Address into a mere ritual.
It is not just a political calendar event, but a strategic engagement with society to inspire and galvanise the nation into progressive action. This year it will be an event.
* Hlophe is governance specialist at the Unisa School of Governance. He writes in his personal capacity.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.