Johannesburg - When Cyril Ramaphosa won
the tight vote to become the new leader of the African National
Congress on Monday after years of near-misses, his loyal
supporters jumped to their feet, pumping their fists and
cheering.
But as the results for other top positions emerged, the
cheers quickly evaporated, as it became clear that ANC officials
close to President Jacob Zuma would still control important
levers of the ruling party.
Ramaphosa, who has served as South Africa's deputy president
under Zuma since 2014, narrowly defeated former cabinet minister
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma's ex-wife and preferred successor,
in the race for the ANC's top job.
Ramaphosa is now within touching distance of becoming
president, fulfilling a lifelong ambition for the man Nelson
Mandela wanted to be his heir after the end of apartheid in
1994.
Markets rallied on Ramaphosa's victory, as investors piled
into rand assets on hopes Ramaphosa would follow through on
campaign promises to uproot corruption and rekindle economic
growth.
But the mood in the conference hall in Johannesburg where
the ANC's new "top six" most powerful officials were announced
told a different story.
The Ramaphosa camp fumed that Zuma loyalists David Mabuza
and Ace Magashule were named ANC deputy president and secretary
general, while Dlamini-Zuma backer Jessie Duarte kept her
position as deputy secretary general.
"We started on a high note, but as we went down the top six
we started having problems. The thing is that Cyril has to work
with this collective," said Sinenhlanhla Xaba, an ANC member
from the Soweto township.
On Tuesday supporters of Senzo Mchunu, Ramaphosa's pick for
secretary general, disputed the vote count that saw him lose out
to Magashule, a sign that Ramaphosa's team was trying to gain
greater control of the upper echelons of the ANC.
Analysts say the slim margin of Ramaphosa's victory will
help keep the ANC together but will make it difficult for
Ramaphosa to pursue a pro-growth policy agenda, as the ANC
faction that backed Dlamini-Zuma and puts greater emphasis on
wealth redistribution will wield considerable influence.
Any attempt to remove the 75-year-old Zuma as South African
president before his second term ends in 2019 - something which
ANC officials close to Ramaphosa have called for - will also be
complicated by Zuma allies retaining senior posts.
Zuma's scandal-plagued time in office has badly tarnished
the ANC's image both at home and abroad and has seen economic
growth slow to a near-standstill.
Zuma has survived several votes of no confidence because he
controls large sections of the ANC through his use of political
patronage.
Lukhona Mnguni, a political analyst at the University of
KwaZulu-Natal, said the ANC leadership outcome was a "poisoned
chalice" for Ramaphosa because officials aligned with Zuma would
constrain his room for manoeuvre.
"Ramaphosa's team know this was no victory. He didn't get
the people he wanted and hopes for recalling (removing) Zuma
have been dampened," Mnguni said. "If Zuma is to be recalled, it
would only be because Mabuza and Magashule gang up on him, which
I don't think is likely."
Ramaphosa, 65, told reporters on Tuesday that the ANC's new
top six was a "unity leadership" which reflected the views of
different sections of the party.
POLICY PARALYSIS?
Investors had hoped Ramaphosa, a former trade union leader
and millionaire businessman, would secure a decisive win in the
ANC race, putting him in a strong position to enact reforms
which could help South Africa avoid further credit rating
downgrades.
Dlamini-Zuma, who President Zuma publicly backed for ANC
leader, was seen as more focused on tackling racial inequality
and struggled to distance herself from the corruption scandals
that have dogged her ex-husband.
But in the new ANC top six announced on Monday, three
officials were from the "slate" of Ramaphosa's preferred
candidates and three were from Dlamini-Zuma's ticket.
"With no clear win for either the Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or
Cyril Ramaphosa slates, I expect the policy paralysis that we
have seen will continue until one side 'defeats' the other,"
said Geoff Blount, managing director at BayHill Capital.
Gwen Ngwenya at the Institute of Race Relations said
expectations for sweeping policy change under Ramaphosa were
overblown.
"The Ramaphosa of fantasy, the figure of a decisive man of
action, has never manifest himself in reality," she said, noting
that promises Ramaphosa made before becoming deputy president
never materialised.
One important consequence of the compromise leadership
outcome seen on Monday is that it lessens the likelihood of the
ANC splitting before the 2019 election - which had been raised
by analysts as a possibility in the event of a clear victory for
the Dlamini-Zuma faction.
Attention now shifts to the makeup of the ANC's new National
Executive Committee (NEC), a group of around 80 officials which
steers the party and will be elected in the coming days.
Should the new NEC be just as split as the ANC's top six,
that would make the prospects for major reform even more remote.