Johannesburg - With a week left before South Africans take to the polls, the Institute of Race Relations’ (IRR) latest poll shows the ANC sitting at 49.5% of the national voter share with the DA at 21.3% and the EFF at 14.9%.
Gareth van Onselen, the IRR’s head of politics and governance, said on Tuesday that the poll was not a prediction of the voting outcome for elections next Wednesday.
The institute had published three other polls gathered from interviews with voters on their possible voting intentions. This latest poll was conducted between April 18 and April 25.
The sample consisted of 2 375 registered voters.
The poll breakdown is as follows
- The ANC currently stands on 49.5% nationally, down 5.2 percentage points from February (54.7%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 51%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it increases to 50%.
- The DA currently stands on 21.3% nationally, down 0.5 percentage points from February (21.8%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also increases to 24%.
- The EFF currently stands on 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February (12.2%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 14%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 14%.
The organisation also provided a breakdown of voter support in Gauteng and the Western Cape. The poll shows that the DA could possibly face a threat of a decline in the province.
For Gauteng intentions are as follows
- The ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.
- The DA currently stands on 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.
- The EFF currently stands on 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12%.
The Western Cape
- The DA currently stands on 44.6% on the provincial ballot, down 5.5 percentage points from February (50.1%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 50%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 51%.
- The ANC currently stands on 27.8% on the provincial ballot, down 6.1 percentage points from February (33.9%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 29%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 28%.
- The ACDP currently stands on 7.0% on the provincial ballot, up 3.5 percentage points from February (3.5%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party stays at 7%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also stays at 7%.
- The EFF currently stands on 6.8% on the provincial ballot, up 5.8 percentage points from February (1.0%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 5%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 5%.
Van Onselen, said voting patterns were likely to change with the next few days as voters make final decisions.
“It is important to appreciate that this poll came out of the field with 14 days of the election period still to go. The last weeks of an election campaign are a critical period during which, historically, the bigger parties – particularly the ANC and DA – tend to consolidate their vote upwards, and the vote share of smaller parties declines, as their voters are pressured. This is still likely to happen,” van Onselen said.
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