I have been reading a number of opinions by reputable professors of political science and respected political analysts, and taken note of the findings of a number of polls with conflicting outcomes.
Very few could give me an idea of how I or the public should vote. The loud-mouthed politicians and once confident parties are all making tall promises or using scare tactics to woo the voter because they, too, are uncertain about their future.
All that this type of electioneering has done is to confuse the voters, who are totally disillusioned with most politicians. Many people who comment about our political situation have little knowledge about the millions of voters who don’t belong to social media, nor do they bother to participate in the conversation, because they don’t have expensive data to waste.
The three major contenders - the ANC, DA and EFF - don’t have more than 1.5 million paid-up members out of an electorate of 20 million.
The remaining 18.5 million non-members are too poor to join a party, or too busy trying to survive to waste time attending political rallies.
I feel that, unlike in previous predictable elections, this time around we have two clear-cut scenarios.
The first scenario, which would be the safest for our country, is a majority for the ANC under Ramaphosa, without him having to form a coalition with the EFF. If Ramaphosa gets this majority, the wheels of justice against corruption can go full steam ahead, without interference from the Zuma faction, who’d be cut down to size.
Such a scenario would entrench Ramaphosa’s position and his faction because people would switch allegiance to a winner. The older opposition parties and many new kids on the block might just end up losing their deposits.
The EFF will attract the unemployed youth, who are no more than 2 million. The educated youth, even if unemployed, can see right through Malema’s duplicitous lifestyle and will not fall for his lies. They, too, will veer towards Ramaphosa because of their resentment against Zuma and his corruption.
The second and truly terrible scenario is for an ANC minority to go into coalition with the EFF. The EFF will want one thing: that the VBS scandal and Malema’s corrupt deals in North West must not be pursued by an efficient and determined South African Revenue Service (Sars).
An ANC/EFF coalition would not bode well for the country because that would definitely hamper the work of Sars, the Hawks and the National Prosecuting Authority.
If the UDM and IFP win enough votes, then a coalition between the ANC and them would be a far better option than an ANC/EFF coalition.
Voting for the ANC nationally is probably the safest bet. Provincially, where service delivery is of paramount concern, the DA has proved itself. This would apply in the Western Cape.
The rest of the country would see several ANC/EFF coalitions because of the DA’s unpopularity among the black electorate outside the Western Cape.
* Dr Rapiti is a family physician, specialising in child and mental health and addiction counselling.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.