Durban - "Don't expect tobacco sales to be unbanned before 2021."
This is according to Free Market Foundation chief officer, Leon Louw, who said talk of the Covid-19 pandemic being around for the next few months could mean smokers should prepare to pay up to R20 for a cigarette or R200 per box in the black market for months to come.
"Indications are that the ban on the sale of tobacco products will be extended beyond Level 4 of lockdown and into Level 1," he warned.
Calling the tobacco ban "rushed and ill-conceived", Louw said the law of unintended consequences was at play.
"As at the end of April, Treasury has lost in excess of R300m in excise duty from tobacco products, the illicit trade has been handed the market on a plate and is charging extortionate prices. People have not stopped smoking. Government has turned 11 million smokers into criminals overnight," he said.
He said the significant results in combatting the illegal trade have been thrown away.
"The future looks bleak for the legitimate industry including all of the informal traders and small retailers who rely on tobacco sales to make a living. This will be very difficult to combat in the future. The illegal tobacco trade has cost South Africa more than R40 billion in lost taxes since 2010," he said.
He questioned claims that tobacco products increased the spread of Covid-19.
"Where is the evidence that tobacco products increase the spread of Covid-19, or why tobacco products are singled out when other goods are shared such as food, drinks or communal toilets? Why aren't they banning sugar since studies of Chinese Covid-19 patients shows that the death rate was three times higher in patients with diabetes?" he said.
Recent research by UCT's Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products has proven the majority of smokers in South Africa continue to purchase cigarettes under the lockdown, and that they have simply switched their buying behaviour from law abiding, tax compliant shops that employ vast numbers of South Africans, to the illegal market, and often travel long distances to procure illegal products.
South Africa is only one of three countries in the world to have banned cigarettes during the pandemic, along with Botswana and India.
According to Louw, the government has yet to provide evidence to suggest smoking has any impact on Covid-19.
"The World Health Organization has not released evidence or data on how smoking impacts the virus and has not taken a position on whether countries should ban tobacco sales. Even if certain studies attempt to make a connection between smoking and Covid-19, why haven't other countries followed their advice and banned tobacco?
"It appears that government has ignored the advice of its own Medical Advisory Committee. So what is the source of their advice? The public - smokers and non-smokers – have a right to know," Louw said.
He added the government was also ignoring the mental health aspects of a sudden withdrawal of nicotine, which are well documented.
"Nicotine withdrawal has been forced upon millions of smokers, with no regard for their mental health. This ban is unnecessary, unprecedented and has no basis in scientific fact. Government is accountable to the people – the day of reckoning will arrive. Public goodwill and support generated in the first three weeks of lockdown is disappearing fast. They better have a very good explanation," Louw said.