By Chad Cooke
There is only one question on every punter's lips on the eve of the running of South Africa's premier horseracing event: who will be first past the post in Saturday's Vodacom Durban July at Greyville?
In racing parlance there is an age-old adage which suggests "the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty". If this view again holds true, then the ruling favourite for the big race, Dynasty, is the horse to beat.
Dynasty, a three-year-old son of Fort Wood, the sire of super-horse Horse Chestnut, was purchased for more than R400 000 as a yearling. One might think that is a huge sum of money, and to many of us it is, but the investment has proven to be more than worthwhile.
Dynasty has been to the racetracks on nine occasions, winning seven times and finishing runner-up in the remaining two starts. The colt has amassed R1,1-million in earnings to date and with a winning prize of R850 000 for the July, he could rocket his earnings to just under R2-million on Saturday.
With the enviable race record the youngster takes into the July, and the odds seemingly weighing strongly in his favour, what hurdles does he have to overcome?
His biggest obstacle is the draw. Trainer Dean Kannemeyer's charge has drawn widest of all the runners and with 20 horses contesting the July this year, he has a huge mountain to climb.
What tactics jockey Robbie Fradd is likely to employ will only be made clear on Saturday as the gates crash open and the race gets underway at 4.30pm.
Whether Fradd elects to chase Dynasty up and get him into a handy position, or he elects to hold his mount back and track the field, in Dynasty he has a thoroughbred that can quicken easily and at Greyville this is a huge asset.
Dynasty has previously been partnered by Fradd and his form going into South African racing's biggest event, is excellent. The colt has no stamina doubts and, as in every race run every day throughout the world, if he has luck in running, the race will be his.
What of his opposition?
The best horses in country over the distance will contest this race so there is no lack of quality opposition. The 20 horses contesting the race have earned more than R17-million in stakes and have won no less than 142 races.
It is a formidable field that Dynasty has to contend with!
Of the 19 runners he faces, Wolf Whistle, African Lion, Red Badge, Yard-Arm and Oratory appear to be the dangers.
Wolf Whistle has had a near perfect preparation for the July and his gallop was one of the best. The four-year-old put up a good effort in his last outing and he is as game as they come.
Yard-Arm, current the second favourite for the race, has been most impressive in his last two outings and is improving with every outing. He has not raced at Greyville before, but is partnered by champion jockey Piere Strydom, one of the best pilots in the business.
Red Badge and African Lion are two of the Cape challengers. They have both put up good efforts in the country's other premier races and there was little to choose between them in the J&B Met, where they finished fourth and sixth respectively.
The last of the dangers is Dynasty's stablemate Oratory. Claimed to win R200 000 early this week, Oratory has found his best form at the right time.
Punter interest in the race is already better than last year as tote takings continue to improve.
On Thursday, the tote favourite was Dynasty, paying R3.30 for a win.