Vehicle owners in Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal face the highest probability of being carjacked or having their vehicle stolen, while those in the Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo appear to be at the lowest statistical risk.
That’s according to an analysis from AI-driven car insurance provider, Naked, which overlays the eNatis database of registered vehicles (cars and motorcycles) on 2018/9 crime statistics from the South African Police Service (SAPS) to understand vehicle theft patterns across all nine provinces.
As the economic powerhouse province, Gauteng accounts for 3.2 million registered cars and motorcycles – nearly 42% of the cars and bikes on the road. Around 48.5% of hijackings and around 50% of vehicle thefts in 2018/9 SAPS crime statistics were reported in the province. This indicates that at least 1% of cars registered in the province are hijacked or stolen per year.
“These findings are consistent with the vehicle crime patterns we see in our own claims statistics,” says Ernest North, co-founder at Naked. “In practice, the probability of car thefts and hijackings in each province could be higher than our numbers indicate, since not all incidents are reported to the police, and because some registered vehicles are seldom or never used.”
Kwa-Zulu Natal, with just over 1 million registered cars and motorcycles, also shows a theft/hijack probability of 1%. It accounts for 13.5% of the vehicle population and almost 17% of stolen and hijacked vehicles in 2018/9. The Western Cape has nearly 1.4 million registered cars/motorcycles on the road, which is 18% of the country’s total, but only accounted for 14% of the country’s hijackings and car thefts during the 2018/2019 period.