Johannesburg - Think ahead 18 years to 2037: the population of Gauteng is around 18.7 million, there are twice as many cars on the roads, congestion has become so bad that the average speed during a peak-time trip between Pretoria and Joburg is 10km/h , and a cloud of pollution hangs over the region.
Step in the Gautrain and its bold plans, outlined in the Gautrain Management Agency’s report on the economic and social impact of the Gautrain, released by the GMA and the Gauteng MEC for Public Transport and Road Infrastructure, Jacob Mamabolo, this week.
The report documents the impact the Gautrain has had on the province since 2010, especially for the three major metros, Tshwane, Joburg and Ekurhuleni. Benefits come in terms of job creation, stimulation of the economy, and social benefit for commuters and communities.
In the province, more than half of poorer residents rely on transport options such as taxis, or they walk, while car usage is high among wealthier residents. But the Gautrain has shown that given a modern, safe, efficient and reliable transit alternative, opinions shift and people are willing to change their habits.
“With the support of Gautrain, the perception of public transport in Gauteng is changing fundamentally. While there may be some reservations about whether or not South Africans will leave their cars at home for the commute, the success of Gautrain has shown that many are prepared to do just that,” the report states.
In 2018, 4.8 million Gautrain trips were taken from Joburg to Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, with 3.8 million trips from Tshwane to Joburg and Ekurhuleni. On average a Gautrain trip saves 22 minutes and, shifting from cars to the Gautrain typically saves 43 minutes during peak morning hour on the Pretoria-Joburg route.
The bold plan over the coming years is to extend the existing system with new track and stations to serve a wider area, including extensions to all three routes, with more than R110 billion expected to be spent on track and 19 new stations and R24.4bn on improving the existing network to get even more people to use the high-speed train.
This includes creating new stations at Samrand, Waterfall and Modderfontein, a Y-link to join Pretoria directly to OR Tambo International Airport, the purchase of additional rolling stock and buses, improvements to parking at the Hatfield, Pretoria, and Rosebank stations, and commercialising the Centurion and Midrand station areas.
The extended Gautrain will in time link some of the most important attractions, facilities and services in the province, from Lanseria Airport to OR Tambo International Airport, from Mamelodi to Menlyn and the Mall of Africa, and from the East Rand to Sandton, Rosebank and Soweto.
The report details some of the major developments which have already brought the three Gauteng metros closer together to create a more powerful region, and which have changed the face of areas around existing stations through high-value commercial, retail and residential space.
The biggest commercial growth has been in the Sandton area, up 48% since 2010, and retail values increased by 32% around Gautrain stations, with the fastest retail floorspace growth in the Midrand catchment area. The amount of office space around Centurion station increased by 15% and the mixed-use Symbio City is still on the cards.
Residential median sales values increased by 52% around Gautrain stations in the period; higher than the 34% average across Gauteng, and the Gautrain has also had an impact on township economies via the stimulation of new development and employment opportunities.
Future extensions are expected to create up to 175000 direct jobs in the construction phase, and 68000 new jobs in the operational phase, with many indirect opportunities, according to the report. It notes, for example, that half the staff at the Radisson Blu Gautrain Hotel live in Alexandra.
Tourism - especially business and events tourism in the region - is another winner, as three of the largest conference centres in the country are within reach of a Gautrain station.
Another change the Gautrain has brought is to perceptions about travel to Joburg for night-time functions, especially mega events.
In total, 8000 people used the Gautrain for the Global Citizen Festival at the Wanderers, and 7500 people for Ed Sheeran concerts at the FNB Stadium earlier this year.
The report highlights the importance of a solid public transport infrastructure to improve accessibility, safety and convenience for residents of the province, and says the planned extended network will enhance links to existing train stations, the BRT and bus networks, and help connect the scattered urban areas and change urban planning patterns in Gauteng.
It will benefit job-creation, build skills and increase knowledge transfer, and add impetus to private-sector development and social investment through an ongoing programme to support community projects in the education and community care sphere.