Joburgers are heading for a difficult few weeks as the Covid-19 third wave is set to worsen, bringing with it a surge in hospital admissions and rising demand for oxygen.
Gauteng so far is the hardest hit province, having experienced an increase in infections that medical experts were expecting would only occur further into winter.
But as in the Covid-19 waves of the past, South Africans are bracing themselves for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s next family meeting, where he might enforce stricter lock down regulations to slow down the virus.
As for what those regulations might be, no one as yet knows for sure.
“The question now is what will the mix be? Previously, was it the curfew the thing that was most effective? Or was it the alcohol ban?” said Professor Alex van den Heever, who holds the chair of social security systems administration and management studies at Wits University.
“So we're going to have to wait and see, it could be that they try a shorter sharp lock down, with a targeted set of restrictions.”
Van der Heever added that the best way to curb the rise in infections would be to stop potential super-spreading events.
The director-general in the National Department of Health, Sandile Buthelezi warned the joint committees on health yesterday that the numbers were rising.
He said while they were sitting with 20 000 active cases three weeks ago, this number had doubled to 42 000. There had been a 12% increase in hospitalisation across the country, Buthelezi said.
“But of more concern is the positivity rate, which has now surpassed the 10% mark for the country. When we were on a plateau we were sitting just above 3%,” he said.
All provinces, he told the joint committees, were experiencing infection increases.
He also said they would in the next few weeks try to increase the number of people who are vaccinated.
But while medical staff are faced with increasing numbers of Covid-19 admissions, they are also battling a trauma epidemic, particularly in the Western Cape that one union believes threatens to collapse the public healthcare system. There had been an increase in trauma admissions caused by stabbings, gunshot wounds and interpersonal violence.
Democratic Nursing Organisation of South Africa (Denosa) said that hospital staff were under increasing strain.
They called on communities to assist healthcare workers who are experiencing the effects of overwork.
“We plead with communities to be considerate of the workload that nurses are carrying in healthcare facilities – most healthcare workers, recent studies have shown, are depressed due to exhaustion, and many are developing anxiety as they haven’t had any time to rest in the past two waves already,” Sibongiseni Delihlazo, Denosa national spokesperson said.
Head of Ezintsha at Wits, professor Francois Venter said that to slow down the surge, the size of indoor gatherings had to be limited, masks needed to be worn and public transport made safer.
Venter said the first two waves were different by province and even within provinces. He cited the example of the numbers in the City of Cape Town versus the Garden Route in the second wave.
“Gauteng’s first and second wave was pretty similar in scale and other provinces had all sorts of differences. So I think we can expect similar differences with the third wave, which seems to be hitting most provinces now,” he said.
Venter said he too noted the spike in hospital admissions.
As for the Western Cape’s “perceived” surge, Venter said there was no real resurgence in the Western Cape yet, but he had seen the numbers going up and a surge could still happen.
“The Western Cape was ahead of the provinces in the first two waves, so maybe they will have a very small late wave or a very large one. Initial numbers suggest this, but it's really hard to tell. The vaccines given in the last two weeks will have had no impact on the epidemic. It takes a few weeks for immunity to kick in. And the numbers given to health workers was small, so also not going to have an impact,” said Venter.
As for the alcohol matter, he said: “I suspect everyone has figured out past that one, and I think it had a small impact anyway; a curfew on high trauma nights – Friday and Saturday – may protect hospital systems if ICUs are starting to hit critical point”.
The possibility of another temporary prohibition has the alcohol industry concerned.
South Africa’s liquor industry believes another ban would be “catastrophic” and could put more than 400 000 jobs in jeopardy.
The Beer Association of South Africa (Basa) said the industry would not survive another lock down.
“The restrictions imposed by last year’s lockdowns combined with the Covid-19 outbreak resulted in the country’s worst economic contraction in over 90 years. This included the three alcohol bans, which had a devastating impact on our local alcohol industry, with more than 200 000 jobs lost, R36.3 billion in lost sales revenue and more than R38bn loss in taxes and excise duties,” Basa said in a statement.
“At the same time, there was a major increase in the illicit sale of alcohol during the bans.”
Basa pointed out that continued sales of alcohol in February did not lead to an increase in infections.
“It is therefore critical that any regulations that are implemented must take into consideration the almost 460 000 livelihoods dependent on the local beer industry,” Basa said.
South Africa’s largest brewery SAB also believes that a further alcohol ban would be disastrous for the industry.
“Another alcohol ban will damage the entire industry for the long-term at a time when the country needs economic recovery the most,” said Zoleka Lisa, SAB's corporate affairs vice-president for South Africa.
SAB reported in its most recent financial results that it lost 30% of its annual production in 2020.
South Africans might not have to wait for long to find out how the government plans to fight this next wave as the National Coronavirus Command Council ( NCCC) is scheduled to meet on Tuesday.