LIEGE, Belgium – Having one Tour de France “in the bag” has Cadel Evans fully believing he can successfully defend the title.
His easy logic: He's done it once, he can do it twice.
The first test of willpower and leg-power in the 99th edition is a quick, 6.4-kilometer prologue in Liege, Belgium, on Saturday - an individual time trial expected to be dominated by specialists like Fabien Cancellara of Switzerland, Tony Martin of Germany, or Bradley Wiggins of Britain.
For a race covering 3,500 kilometres over three weeks, the prologue is by no means expected to determine who will ride down Paris' Champs-Elysees in the yellow jersey on July 22 - but it could well provide an early indication about who won't. Evans was already playing down expectations about how he might fare in it.
“It starts tomorrow on a stage that isn't so suited to me,” the BMC team leader said on Friday. “But from here on in, it's all systems go, and I'm looking forward to getting another Tour started.”
Evans says he's entering with a “similar mentality” to his winning approach last year. But this year's route goes heavier on time trials -with more than 100 kilometers total in individual races against the clock - and lighter on steep mountain climbs than the most recent Tours.
“Knowing that we have already won one, it makes it quite a little bit easier,” Evans said. “When you've won one - in the bag - it's there. ... It makes it a whole lot easier. You don't have this question of doubt: 'Maybe I can win it, maybe I can't?' We know we can.”
He acknowledged that race connoisseurs are putting their bets on a two-man showdown between Evans and Wiggins, a three-time Olympic track gold medalist who has converted to road races and has worked hard to improve in the mountains that are often crucial to Tour victory.
“They tell me that Wiggins is the man to beat, so they say, but we'll see it on the roads,” Evans said. “Three weeks on the road is a long time, and a lot can happen.”
Wiggins has shown superb form this season: He won the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Romandie and Paris-Nice stage races this year. Evans, by comparison, admitted he has been off to a “bit of a quiet start” to 2012, with just one victory in the three-stage Criterium International - but is progressing and hopes to peak for the Tour.
The crop of likely contenders has thinned in recent months. Alberto Contador was suspended from racing until August and stripped of his 2010 Tour title for doping in that race. Andy Schleck - who inherited the Spaniard's title after placing second that year - is out to heal a spinal injury sustained in the Criterium du Dauphine this month.
International Cycling Union president Pat McQuaid expressed concern that the absence of aggressive mountain climbers like Contador and Schleck might deprive the Tour of some drama.
“By all accounts, it should probably pan down to a race between two individuals: Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins,” McQuaid said. “They're both very similar type of individuals, which could make it a little bit uninteresting because they're both slightly conservative in the mountains, and they both depend on their time trial abilities to win the race.”
“So it could be a methodical race, unfortunately,” he told the Associated Press.
The three uphill finishes are relatively few by recent Tour standards. The first comes on the eastern Vosges mountains in Stage 7, with a steep ride up the Planche de Belles Filles - followed by rides up to ski stations: La Toussuire in the Alps in Stage 11, and Peyragudes in the Pyrenees in Stage 17.
Outside threats for overall victory include Dutch rider Robert Gesink, the winner of the Tour of California this year, American veteran Levi Leipheimer - solid in both time trials and the mountains - and Italy's Vincenzo Nibali, the winner of the 2010
Spanish Vuelta and who is back at the Tour for the first time since 2009.
After three days in Belgium, the race cuts from the English Channel across northern France to the Vosges, down to the Alps, down to the nudist-beach town of Cap d'Agde on the Mediterranean Sea, then into the Pyrenees, followed by a pivotal time trial in Stage 19 - on the eve of the finish in Paris.
“The basics of the race remain the same: You've got to get to Paris quicker than everyone else,” said Evans. “Winning one Tour was great. Winning two must be better, right?” – Sapa-AP