Johannesburg - The Emirates Lions host Cardiff Rugby in the United Rugby Championship (URC) at Emirates Airline Park on Sunday (kick-off 4pm).
The Joburgers are on a five-match losing streak in the tournament, and if they are to salvage anything from the season, must beat the visitors.
Here, Morgan Bolton, looks at three factors that could define the match and see the Lions finally triumph in 2022.
1 Line them up
The only consistent thing about the Lions second-row this year has been Ruben Schoeman. In the five matches played so far in 2022, Schoeman has partnered Pieter Jansen van Vuren, Willem Alberts, Ruhan Straeuli and PJ Steenkamp.
It is arguably this disruption that has caused the sporadic malfunctioning of the team’s line-outs, as they have had no recognised specialist in that set-piece. That should be corrected on Sunday with the return of Reinhard Nothnagel in the No 5, as he should offer stability and assuredness in that particular department.
The Lions have been guilty of doing all the hard yards, grafting to a position where they can launch an attack via the line-out-maul, only to fluff their chances. Nothnagal could solve that problem and increase the threat the Lions will have on the drive.
2 Sir, yes, sir
Irishman Chris Busby is the man in the middle for the clash against Cardiff; and it has now become apparent that the northern referees are almost loath to award penalties come scrum-time.
There is little doubt that the Sharks - through Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi and Thomas du Toit - dominated the Scarlets in the scrum on Friday night but the Durbanites had to work hard to convince Scottish official Sam-Grove White.
That will probably be true for this clash as well, regarding the Lions and their favoured set-piece, which is undoubtedly powerful but has arguably not received the just rewards it thoroughly deserves in the URC.
It certainly seems to be a cultural viewpoint: The European teams simply use the scrum as a reset - they get the ball in and out as quickly as possible; while for the SA franchises it is a tool to attack and build pressure – either on the scoreboard or territorially.
The Lions must, therefore, do everything in their power to convince Busby that they are the superior scrummigers. That means there must be no shenanigans, obtuse or technical reason for the ref to interpret it otherwise.
It’ll probably be Sti Sithole, Jaco Visagie and Carlu Sadie’s toughest assignment of the afternoon.
3 Don’t get too loose
Again, and with the hindsight of the Sharks match, the coastal team were guilty of running at Scarlets from the get-go. That approach suited the Welsh visitors, who managed to notch up a 13-6 lead with 30 minutes to go.
For the majority of the match, the Sharks refused to fall back on their physicality – a strength of all SA sides – and first win the tight exchanges. There is no reason to believe a similar approach won’t benefit Cardiff on Sunday.
Perhaps it was hubris, or maybe a bit of over-confidence that blinded the Sharks but when they did finally tighten up against an exhausted Scarlets in the final quarter, they constructed two excellent team tries.
The Lions, however, can ill afford to take the same approach.
As pointed out by skipper Jaco Kriel earlier this week, his team must first win the arm-wrestle, grind down Cardiff in the initial exchanges and then when that graft has been successful, play with a bit more freedom and flash the conditions will afford. That means defending like Trojans, attacking the breakdown, and bullying their opponents whenever they can.
The Lions also don’t want to be chasing the game at half-time.
The Leinster defeat might have instilled some confidence in the team, but it is a fragile thing, and the morale of the team could easily snap if the XV on the field lose their sense of belief. Springbok and union legend Kriel, therefore, has a massive job on his hands to keep his team motivated no matter the circumstances.
TEAMS FOR JOBURG
Lions starting XV: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Stean Pienaar, 13 Wandisile Simelane, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 Jaco Kriel (capt), 5 Reinhard Nothnagel, 4 Ruben Schoeman, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Sithembiso Sithole.
Replacements: 16 PJ Botha; 17 JP Smith; 18 Ruan Dreyer; 19 Ruan Venter; 20 Emmanuel Tshituka; 21 Nico Steyn; 22 Manuel Rass; 23 Tiaan Swanepoel.
Cardiff Rugby starting XV: 15 Matthew Morgan; 14 Owen Lane, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Aled Summerhill; 10 Jarrod Evans, 9 Lloyd Williams; 8 James Botham, 7 Will Boyde, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Matthew Screech, 4 Josh Turnbull (capt), 3 Dmitri Arhip, 2 Kirby Myhill, 1 Corey Domachowski.
Replacements: 16 Kristian Dacey, 17 Brad Thyer, 18 Will Davies-King, 19 Rory Thornton, 20 Ellis Jenkins, 21 Jamie Hill, 22 Max Llewellyn, 23 Hallam Amos