DURBAN - Political analysts have dismissed the narrative that the ANC would lose support in 2019 if Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma was elected as the next president of the ruling party and, by extension, of the country, in December.
Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, politics lecturer at the University of the Western Cape and independent analyst, Thabani Khumalo, said the ANC was likely to lose support if it did not get its house in order now.
Dlamini Zuma is one of the candidates vying for the top position. Others include Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Human Settlements Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Minister in the Presidency Jeff Radebe and former ANC treasurer Mathews Phosa.
President Jacob Zuma has indicated he will not be standing for a third term.
In one of his off-the-cuff speeches, Zuma said, “I can’t wait for December so that I can step aside and speak freely about issues that bother me as a citizen of this country. Then they can’t say to me, but Mr President, you can’t say this or that in public.
“I will be free to speak what I want to speak.”
Mngomezulu said,“I think there will be too much speculation from now on until December. Right now, we have about seven candidates who have been nominated.“If you look at them, none is 100%. It would depend on how they market themselves from now until December.”
It was misleading to say Dlamini Zuma, if elected, would cost the party the 2019 elections, Mngomezulu said.
“If you look at all of them no one can win the elections hands down.
“I don’t share the view that if Dlamini Zuma emerged (as the winner) that would mark the end of the ANC.”
Mngomezulu said campaigning would not be done by an individual, but by all members of the party.
“The same people who would have voted for her in December would lobby other party members to rally behind her,” said Mngomezulu.
And while Khumalo was of the view that the ANC was likely to drop in 2019, he said this could not be attributed to one person but to factionalism and divisions that were “killing” the party.
“My problem is not that the ANC has factions but that nothing is being done to address this issue,” he said.
Khumalo said Dlamini Zuma, who sits on the national executive committee, was a “strong, experienced and credible candidate”.
“Politically and administratively, she is credible but it is her association with Zuma that is denting her campaign,” Khumalo added.
The ANC won 62% of votes in the 2014 general elections and 53% in the local government last year.
However, the party lost key metros - Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and the City of Johannesburg - to the opposition in last year’s municipal elections.
Factionalism, internal squabbling and divisions would cost the ANC in 2019, warned Mngomezulu.
To curb factions, Zuma proposed a sharing of power among the front-runners, which meant that the losing candidate for the position of president would automatically be placed as the deputy president.
But Mngomezulu said Zuma’s proposal was not likely to fly.
Khumalo agreed.
Zuma argued when he proposed the sharing of power that this would rid the 105- year-old party of factions post the all-important December conference.
The matter is being discussed internally, treasurer general Zweli Mkhize told the Sunday Tribune last week.
Dlamini Zuma, whose campaign name is NDZ, has already won the support of the youth and the women’s leagues.
On the other hand, Ramaphosa, whose campaign is dubbed CR17, enjoys support from ANC alliance partners Cosatu and the SACP.
The contest for the top job was tearing the party apart with Cosatu and the SACP banning Zuma from speaking at their events.
They preferred Ramaphosa.
Ultimately, it is the 4 500 delegates from ANC branches who will choose the person they see fit to be president of the party and, by extension, of South Africa.