It is palpably clear that the ruling party, the ailing, beleaguered and crisis-ridden ANC, urgently requires a new leader who has the qualities required to stem and reverse the terrible and terrific decline it has suffered over the past few years. Last week the Saturday Citizen speculated Kgalema Motlanthe might be the dark horse in the upcoming elective conference of the ANC in December, though in an interview the paper had with him he dismissed such speculation as having no factual basis.
This is not the first time there is such speculation. Last year there were various reports that the ANC in Gauteng had approached Motlanthe and tried to persuade him to stand in these elections, but he had declined. Whether they have behind the scenes continued to try to persuade Motlanthe is uncertain, but what is quite clear is that they have this year lined up behind Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa in his bid for the presidency. Whether this is due to the reported resistance they encountered with Motlanthe - and therefore see Ramaphosa as a second-best option - is uncertain.
However, if there is any factual basis to the report, there are several matters that pro-Motlanthe ANC members and other supporters would need to urgently consider, given that there is just over two months left before the conference, which might in fact lead many people to conclude that it is much too late for him to enter the race, especially given that there are seven other contenders for the presidency, all of whom have been actively campaigning for several months in one form or another.
Certainly it would appear that it is too late, and if indeed it is, it would be unfortunate that those who wanted him to become the next president of the ANC waited so long. However, the Saturday Citizen report quoted an analyst who stated that according to his sources the strategy of Motlanthe supporters was that he would emerge at the last minute, untouched by the raging leadership conflicts among the known contenders, which would help him to appeal to various camps as an ideal unifier at a critical moment.
But what are the prospects of such an outcome, especially as a strategy for Motlanthe to win the ANC presidency in December? There are several factors which those wanting such an outcome need to consider immediately. A candidate for the ANC presidency ideally must have waged a concerted campaign at least a year before the conference to stand a chance of success. In this regard, to varying degrees, all the seven presidential candidates have been doing that.
What this situation strongly suggests, therefore, is that for Motlanthe to in the first place enter the race this late, and especially despite that critical omission still appeal to voting delegates with a winnable chance, he would need the kind of leadership qualities which the present crisis in the ANC cries out for and is so strong that it could dispense with a protracted election campaign. In this regard he would above all other considerations be a leader who can play a decisive role in uniting a terribly divided and beleaguered ANC at the most difficult and vulnerable moment of its rule in post-apartheid South Africa. The key question is, does he have such qualities?
I think he does, but not without any reservations. I have argued before that I regard him, with his weaknesses and failures, as one of the best leaders the ANC produced. He is in fact very much in the characteristic mould of ANC greats, such as Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and Walter Sisulu. He is unquestionably deeply respectful, patient and humble, which are key requirements for effective and, in fact, powerful political leadership, precisely because many or even most leaders are not like that.
But he is often so to a fault - which is the problem.
Hence, his weaknesses resides in the fact that he is too self-effacing, which being very humble can sometimes result in. I recall that when I interviewed the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters, Julius Malema, for my Motlanthe biography, he also complained about this self-effacing vulnerability.
Several other leading ANC figures, and some prominent people outside the ANC who highly respect and like him, also spoke of this when I interviewed them for his biography. That was often the refrain I heard from people who otherwise had the highest respect for him and believed, like Ben Turok said to me, he was the best leader in the ANC who could help rescue the party from the bleak, despondent and crippling years of the Jacob Zuma presidency.
The other integrally related and consequential problem is he is not only not inclined to step forward to a position of power, but he is reluctant to embrace it even when it has been thrust upon him. If it was not for this vulnerable weakness, which it is, especially in the hurly-burly world of politics, he would make a much more powerful leader. Power does not sit easily and comfortably on his shoulders, undoubtedly. But if he could grasp this nettle, wrestle with and conquer it, he would make a much greater leader.
At the age of 67 it is not too late for Motlanthe to come to terms with power, after all Mandela became president of this country when he was 76. Since he is very well known to the ANC branches, having been secretary-general for a decade, knows the ANC and its history like the back of his hand and is very widely respected among members in all the regions, he is certainly presidential material, even at this late stage. Besides, he has advantages in relation to the current presidential candidates, including Ramaphosa. At a very difficult moment in the ANC and the country, following the forced resignation of former president, Thabo Mbeki, he was elected president of the country in 2008 for about eight months. For a short period he had a taste of power in the highest office in the land, which Ramaphosa has not had. He was also the deputy president of the country between 2009 and 2014. This is formidable political experience he embodies. Additionally, unlike Ramaphosa, he is not tainted by any serious or debilitating scandals.
But it is more specifically his ability to draw warring factional sides together in negotiations, which his days as a union leader helped hone the skill, which is the most important quality he has and which many will argue is most needed now. Many do not realise that it is these qualities which helped keep the ANC united between the Stellenbosch ANC elective conference in 1997 and the Polokwane one in 2007, when at many moments it seemed things might fall apart in the ANC.
Given that there are seven contentious contenders for the presidency, each vying acrimoniously against the other, which is in itself debilitating, Motlanthe might indeed be the compromise candidate figure to arrest further decline and prevent things literally falling apart in the ANC, which many might argue is a process already under way, but whether irreversibly so is another question, the answer to which might be Motlanthe.
* Harvey is the authorised biographer of Motlanthe.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.