Johannesburg - Bali, the Westernmost of the Lesser Sunda Islands of Indonesia, stands to go down in the annals of contemporary history as a place where a possible World War III was averted.
On November 15-16, Bali will play host to the 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit. Indonesia holds the current Presidency of the G20, the influential group of leading economies whose influence in geopolitics is beyond impactful.
The attention in Bali will most likely – in fact inevitably – fall on two men, US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
For the first time since the outbreak of the Ukraine war on February 24, the two leaders of nuclear powers will be under one roof. They have never spoken directly, not even telephonically since Russia declared its special military operation against Kyiv. And whilst the hostilities in the US-Russia relations have continued to deteriorate, fears of an escalation in the war remain real.
A fortnight ago Ukraine forces stood accused of bombing the Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia with Crimea in the eastern part of Ukraine. Crimea seceded from Ukraine in 2014 following the coup that ousted a democratically-elected pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych from power. The region held a referendum to determine its future. The results were a resounding “yes vote” to be incorporated into Russia. The Kerch Bridge was rapidly built afterwards and was unveiled in 2018 amid fan-fare, pomp and ceremony.
It created the free flow of movement as well as transportation of goods and services between Crimea and Russia. Its partial bombing by the Ukraine forces triggered a Russian backlash this week. Several Ukraine cities were shelled in successive nights of loud detonations and missile strikes that left at least 11 people dead. The US-led NATO has steadfastly elected to shun any opportunity to engage with Moscow over the possibility of a peace deal.
The West hold the key to whether the conflict continues or not. The Ukraine war is their proxy war. The US and its NATO allies have supplied tons of lethal military weapons to Kyiv to keep fighting against Russia. Billions of US dollars continue to be allocated to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime as part of oxygen to withstand Russia’s firepower.
So far, there has been no visible effort to bring about an end to the war. Conversely, the escalation has been marked by four major regions of Ukraine emulating Crimea recently by holding coordinated referenda to decide on breaking away.
Like Crimea in 2014, the four regions have voted overwhelmingly – according to Moscow, to be incorporated into Russia. The four oblasts now considered part of Russia are Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Together, they make up 15% or 90,000 sq km of Ukraine’s territory. At the recent UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York, the US and its allies attempted to push through a resolution condemning what they termed Russia’s annexation of the four oblasts, and declaring the action as illegal. However, Russia, as one of the five permanent members of the UNSC with veto powers, blocked the adoption of the resolution.
The other permanent members of the UNSC are China, a close ally of Russia, and the US, France and the UK, who are close Nato allies behind a barrage of unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. The sanctions have thus far failed to bring Russia to her knees, proving the empirical evidence of globalization scholars that the international order has become one global village that is interconnected and interdependent.
As the European winter season starts, the cost of gas has sky-rocketed to prices not seen in recent history. Russia is Europe’s main supplier of gas and oil. As part of Moscow’s fight-back strategy against Western sanctions, the Kremlin has sporadically turned off the gas supply channels, or drastically reduced the volumes. The EU has been locked in frantic deliberations on how to circumvent Russia’s dose of “sanctions”. After causing Germany to shut down the Nord Stream2 gas pipeline from Moscow to Berlin, the US has taken over from Russia as the biggest supplier of gas to Europe. The major difference is the cost. The prices have gone astronomical, triggering a wave of social unrest in several European capitals.
Geopolitical watchers anticipate that unless the Ukraine war is quickly negotiated to a halt, and Russia resumes its supply of inexpensive gas to Europe, several anti-Russian regimes are set to collapse under a wave of political protest caused by economic hardships. One of Europe’s key anti-Russian regimes is the Tory government led by Prime Minister Liz Truss. There’s been no honeymoon period for Truss. Already, her government has been forced to make a U-turn on a major economic policy that sought to tax the rich. As things stand, the UK is on the brink of a recession. The value of the British Pound is on unchartered territories. It would be a miracle if Truss and the Conservatives stay in power for longer. All signs are clear: they are living on borrowed time.
Politically, the agile British Press would soon describe her as a “dead woman walking”. Her predecessor, Boris Johnson, left Number 10 under a cloud of Covid-19-related scandals. The party is in tatters. Russia is no longer a priority for the electorate. All they now want to know is where their next meal will be coming from. As for the US, the Biden administration is already tapping on their oil and gas reserves. Washington is surviving on the mercy of a patriotic Press, and a wave of Russophobia. Bali, therefore, comes perhaps at an opportune time for all sides. Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov revealed during a media address in Moscow that President Putin was willing to sit around the table with President Biden, “if so requested”, and that unfortunately, such a request hasn’t been forthcoming.
Lavrov emphasised that if Washington shared the same willingness for a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, the Kremlin was ready to oblige. Such a meeting would also bring to an end the obscured goings-on in backdoor diplomacy.
In the same week that Russia appeared to give peace a chance, President Biden also reduced his hostile rhetoric against his Russian counterpart, calling him “a rational actor”. Previously, President Biden had used undiplomatic language against President Putin, calling, among others, a “killer”, and “murderer”.
The toning down of unhelpful rhetoric bodes well for the opportunity to broker a peace deal in Bali. No doubt the Ukraine war and the presence of both Presidents Biden and Putin are going to overshadow the G20 agenda. After all, the survival of multilateralism depends by and large on the sound Washington-Moscow bilateral relations.
The indirect threats of the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine conflict have set the international community on a precipice.
A precedent for the use of nuclear weapons was first set by the US in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 at the tail-end of World War II.
The US has long been the world’s only remaining superpower after the end of the Cold War. A career politician such as Biden ought to exhibit a greater appreciation of negotiations in any conflict.
For in all wars, there can be no winners.
The billions of dollars that the US is investing as it fights Russia through Ukraine could be best used to alleviate the plight of the poor, the homeless and the millions who are unable to access health care in the US.
Russia’s well-documented fears and concerns about the expansion of Nato eastward should not be mocked by the West as a smokes screen.
National security is the obligation of all governments, including that of Russia, the US, China and every nation.
If Biden and Putin could find it in themselves to put pride aside and establish a process towards ending the Ukraine war, history would judge them favourably.
There has been too much destruction and loss of life in Ukraine already.
If Russia chooses, Putin could unleash a rain of missiles and bombs on the weaker Ukrainian military. So far he has opted to use minimal military power.
Nato need not push Russia to “a nuclear Armageddon”.
But then, the choice is theirs, sadly not Ukraine’s.
Kyiv is only but a pawn in the bigger scheme of geopolitical wrangling.
Bali, for her part, stands on the cusp of a historical breakthrough.
Good luck.