Preliminary results point to decline in ANC support

ANC logo on ANC background colours

ANC logo on ANC background colours

Published May 30, 2024


With the Electoral Commission of South Africa hitting the 1 million mark, the ANC seems to be losing the majority it once enjoyed for the past 30 years.

This year’s elections are the most significant since the end of apartheid.

The current picture suggests that the ANC may be forced to make a deal with one or more other parties, to govern.

Election analyst Micheal Atkins told The Star on Thursday morning that the ANC’s apparent decline in support could be attributed to its poor performance in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

At this rate, Atkins said, the ANC could lose its place as the ruling party.

“In KZN, I do not see how the ANC could secure a majority. It is too early to tell what the overall picture will be, but it is clear that MK will take significant votes away from the ANC (what we don't know is how much and where).

“Early indications are that the IFP is holding steady, and will be in a strong position after the election. I see the IFP as one of four main players, so the situation could be quite complex,” the election analysts said.

Atkins said he did not expect any one party getting an outright majority in the province.

“I would be surprised if any party got above 30% in KZN. One thing to look out for is how many votes MK wins from those who supported the EFF in 2019.

“It would also be interesting to see whether parties stick to their pre-election statements and promises concerning co-operation with others,” he added.

The total number of valid votes at the time of writing, stood at 1, 265,669 while the counted votes in terms of percentage stood at 13.45%.

Predictions are that the Gauteng Province may end up being governed by a coalition after the elections.

However, ANC provincial Chairperson and Premier Panyaza Lesufi poured cold water on such predictions, saying the ANC would shock the naysayers

He said the ANC had to fend off competition from not only the opposition and new political parties, but also hostility from the media and social media influencers.

Meanwhile, the EFF could be poised to be the kingmaker in the province.

The ANC has won the national elections since the dawn of democracy, but after 30 years of governance its support has been eroded due to corruption, service delivery failures and high unemployment.

The early results show the ANC, the DA, the EFF, and to the surprise of many, newbie MK party among the top contenders.