Censuses of the population reveal insights into our geo-space. The numerical tapestry of our urban landscape is the focus of this column today, exploring Hillbrow in Johannesburg and Sunnyside in Tshwane.
I explore the subject of changes in population size, racial composition and sex ratio. I also dip into what the prospects for a Valentine would have been as Cupid pierces hearts in this our month of love as censuses have it all.
By so doing I inadvertently attract the question that censuses worldwide do not generally have, including those of South Africa, namely a time series data of the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community.
Importance
The importance of this community has risen over time and that they count has come to the fore in a very stark manner. The advent of the Sustainable Development Goals and the manifesto of leaving no one behind elevates collective consciousness on what constitutes the numerical reality of our socio-economic and demographic landscape and its constitutional being.
Many more insights are possible as a census will tell us about the education levels, income levels, migration and religious affiliations of the population.
South Africa has undertaken three censuses in the post-apartheid period.
These were the years 1996, 2001 and 2011. We also undertook large-scale surveys in 2007 and 2016 in this period, but these undertakings provide information only at the level of municipalities. Suburbs are not reported upon as the sample size is too small to make this possible.
Now for the results. The population of South Africa since 1996 grew from 40 million to 51 million in 2011 and by 2016 South Africa tipped the 55 million mark. So over a period of 20 years South Africa’s population increased by 16 million people. This means 800 000 people more per year were added to the population.
The rate of growth on average has been just about 0.75 percent per year. In this period the population of Gauteng province grew from just about 7.4 million to 1 3million, a 6 million increase in growth. This means that every third person in the overall additional people in South Africa per annum was to be found in Gauteng. Compared to the national average growth of 1.5 percent per year, the population of Gauteng grew by 2.3 percent per year.
Now let us turn to how the suburbs of Sunnyside and Hillbrow grew. The population of Sunnyside in 1996 was 21 000 and has since just about doubled to 39 000 in 2011. That of Hillbrow grew more than threefold from 21 000 to 74 000. Both suburbs had almost an equal population in 1996, and by 2011 Sunnyside was just about half the population of Hillbrow. The population of Hillbrow grew astronomically at 3.5 percent per annum while that of Sunnyside grew at 1.2 percent per annum.
The picture would be totally incomplete if one does not explore the changing demographic dynamics such as the race and sex composition of the population.
Figure 1 shows that over this period the number of whites in Sunnyside dropped in absolute numbers from 16000 in 1996 to under a quarter of the population at 3300 by 2011. Conversely, the population of black Africans had increased from 4000 in 1996 to 35000 in 2011.
Hillbrow by 1996 had a dwindled white population of 1600 and by 2011 it had dropped to about 300. The black African population ballooned from 18000 in 1996 to 72000 in 2011.
What happened to Cupid’s fortune over time in these spaces? The sex ratio provides an indication of how well the prospects look between the sexes. Sex ratio is a measure of the number of males per 100 females. We explore how these have been changing over time.
Sunnyside in 1996 had a sex ratio of 122 males for every 100 females.
Spoilt for choice
By then there would be very many lonely males on Valentine's Day as Cupid would have pointed them to nowhere. Females were then spoilt for choice. But the good book says when he saw that man was lonely he provided for a partner. It looks like over time prospects for partners increased in Sunnyside. By 2001 the sex ratio had dropped to 1.06 males for every 100 females and finally by 2011 there were 97 males for every 100 females, bringing a sense of balance in Sunnyside.
In Hillbrow men would have been spoilt for choice in 1996, which is a direct opposite of Sunnyside. With a sex ratio of 82 males for every 100 females Valentine's Day posed very little problems for males then, and for the next five years this increased to 84 leaving males in the pound seat. But the next 10 years showed rapid increases towards parity where by 2011 there were 98 males for every 100 females.
On February 14 in 2016 hopefully both Sunnyside and Hillbrow enjoyed a balanced Valentine's Day at a sex ratio of 97 and 98 males per 100 females. Census numbers reveal concealed social processes and expose them to the human faculty in ways that makes it possible for action towards changing life and living conditions.
Dr Pali Lehohla is South Africa's Statistician-General and Head of Statistics South Africa.