Investors bearish on SABMiller deal

AB InBev CEO Carlos Brito, just moments before blowing the kudu horn during the listing ceremony at the JSE on Friday 15 January 2016 Picture: Timothy Bernard

AB InBev CEO Carlos Brito, just moments before blowing the kudu horn during the listing ceremony at the JSE on Friday 15 January 2016 Picture: Timothy Bernard

Published Jul 29, 2016

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London - Anheuser-Busch InBev shares rose on optimism the world’s biggest brewer will manage to complete its $103 billion bid for SABMiller after some investors turned bearish on the deal on news that integration efforts had been halted earlier this week.

The stock rose as much as 2.5 percent in Brussels. Major SABMiller shareholders have signaled they favour the revised takeover offer, according to people familiar with the process. The brewer Friday repeated it aims to complete the acquisition this year as it reported second-quarter profit growth that missed analysts’ estimates on challenging markets in South America.

‘‘On a normal day we would expect the shares to come under some pressure this morning,” wrote Jonathan Fyfe, an analyst at Mirabaud. ‘‘However, last night’s news that numerous SABMiller shareholders have declared themselves in favour of the bid may well provide a handy offset.”

Faced with declining popularity of its big brands in the US and western Europe, CEO Carlos Brito has spent the past 10 months pursuing SABMiller. That bid hit a snag after the pound slumped due to the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Earlier this week AB InBev raised its offer one last time, and SABMiller froze all contact with the company on integration, raising the possibility the largest deal in brewing history may sputter out.

SABMiller gained as much as 1.3 percent to 4 381.5 pence in London.

Read also:  SABMiller’s shares dip on JSE

Earnings rose 4.3 percent to $4.01 billion on an adjusted basis before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation as shipments unexpectedly fell 1.7 percent, the maker of Stella Artois said. Analysts expected 6.9 percent earnings growth. AB InBev said Brazilian revenue will stagnate despite next month’s Olympic games in Rio de Janeiro.

Poor quarter

“Another poor quarter,” wrote Eamonn Ferry, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas. ‘‘That’s four out of the last five quarters now. This miss comes against the background of a very undemanding comparable base. This seems a little odd, but then again perhaps AB InBev have no massive incentive to knock the ball out of the park right now given the current tension with regard to the SABMiller offer price.”

Consumption is suffering in Brazil due to increased taxes, a change in government, a sliding economy and the outbreak of the Zika virus. In the first quarter of the year, weakness in Brazil led to its worst sales in northern Latin America since 2009, and AB InBev said Friday the weakness lasted longer than expected, forcing it to abandon its forecast for revenue growth in Brazil this year.

“Brazil is facing a very tough consumer environment, inflation is high, wages are under pressure and we had a very tough quarter,” Brito said on a call with reporters. “We are seeing sign of macroeconomic improvement and try to take a long-term view, and Brazil is still a great place to do business.”

AB InBev’s Skol lager brand is sponsoring the summer games in Rio and will host Skol Villa, a drinking venue in the Olympic Park. The company will seek to promote Skol Ultra, a light beer aimed at consumers with active lifestyles, Brito said.

The Leuven, Belgium-based company had previously forecast Brazilian sales would grow by mid-to-high single digits in 2016.

The brewer also lowered its forecast for cost of sales on more efficiency measures.

BLOOMBERG

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