Singapore - Emerging-market stocks and currencies slumped amid volatile trading as results from the US election indicated that Republican Donald Trump was poised to win the presidency.
The Mexican peso, a barometer of Trump’s fortunes, tumbled the most in eight years to its weakest level on record, while the Turkish lira sank to an all-time low and the South African rand fell the most in four weeks as traders dumped all but the safest assets. A gauge of developing-nation equities retreated to a three-month low as exporters and banks provided the biggest drag on the benchmark measure. Shares in Hong Kong, India and Taiwan paced losses.
Markets around the world were thrown into disarray as results signaled Trump is set to pull off a huge electoral upset and become the 45th president of the United States. Trump has put forward protectionist pledges that analysts say are likely to affect trade, including ties with Mexico and China.
“We’ll continue to see stocks sold around the globe, emerging markets sold particularly the Mexican peso,” said Jeffrey Halley, a market strategist at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte in Singapore. “Definitely regional currencies and stock markets here are going to stay under a lot of pressure.”
Based on the states that have been called, Trump had 264 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to claim the White House and Clinton had collected 215, while the Republicans also retained control of Congress.
“Volatility will be very high and it will be difficult for people to position themselves,” said Indra Mawira, an investment manager at Panin Asset Management in Jakarta. “It is exciting but not the kind of excitement that we are looking for. The risk that Trump’s victory may slow down the pace of a Fed rate hike might be positive for emerging markets.”
Top Movers
* The peso slumped the most since October 2008 to halt a four-day gain. The Mexican currency became one of the world’s most volatile ever over the past month as traders weighed the prospects that Trump could score an upset win in the presidential race and make good on pledges to renegotiate the free-trade agreement that’s transformed Mexico into an export powerhouse.
* The rand tumbled 2.9 percent and the lira weakened 1.2 percent, while declines in Asia were more sedate with the exception of South Korea’s won, which lost 1.3 percent. Malaysia’s ringgit and Indonesia’s rupiah dropped at least 0.6 percent.
* Russia’s ruble retreated 0.8 percent in offshore trading versus the dollar, the weakest level on a closing basis since September 20.
* The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.2 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 3 percent. Indonesian shares sank 2.2 percent, while stocks in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam lost more than 1 percent.
* Indonesian miners, which rallied earlier this week on rising metal and coal prices spurred by bets for a Clinton win, erased most of those gains. The Jakarta Mining Index slid as much as 3.3 percent. PT Adaro Energy and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah dropped more than 5 percent, while PT Vale Indonesia fell 4.7 percent.
* India’s S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 3.2 percent after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government unexpectedly withdrew high-denomination banknotes. Indian sovereign bonds rallied, with the yield on Indian 10-year falling eight basis points to 6.71 percent, the lowest in a month.
* The yield on South Korea’s 10-year bonds fell 10 basis points to 1.60 percent.
Currencies
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency dropped 0.6 percent at 2:55 p.m. in Hong Kong, halting a two-day gain, as 10-day historical volatility jumped to the highest level in seven weeks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.5 percent, set for the steepest decline since June 24.
“It’s been a bloodbath in the markets over the last few hours with the Mexican peso suffering particularly badly as Donald Trump edges ever closer to the White House,” Craig Erlam, London-based analyst at Oanda Corporation, wrote in a note to clients. “The way markets have traded over the last couple of days and positioned ahead of the vote, you would think the election was going to be a routine victory for Clinton.”
* With assistance from Jung Park, Harry Suhartono, Kartik Goyal and Alex Nicholson
BLOOMBERG