Johannesburg - Maize production in South Africa is likely to increase by 68 percent in the 2016/17 production season as compared with the current 2015/16 season.
The expected improvement will enable the country to produce 12.9 million tons of maize for next season, up from 7.7 million tons in the current season.
Wandile Sihlobo, a senior agricultural economist at Agricultural Business Chamber, said the farming community expected the climate to normalise towards summer.
Sihlobo said there were 55 percent to 65 percent chances of a La Nina period and these were good signs for improved weather conditions, which would bring “roughly more than normal rainfall”.
Benefit farmers
“The expected rainfall will cause moisture to the soil and this will benefit the farmers and we will see the recovery in the maize production,” he said.
The International Grains Council said yesterday in their monthly report that the country’s 2016/17 maize production would improve to 12.9 million tons, up by 68 percent from their 2015/16 estimate of 7.7 million tons.
The council revised their 2016/17 global maize production estimate by 1 percentage point from the previous estimate to 1 030 billion tons - 6 percent higher than the previous season’s crop.
It said production increases were expected in the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, India and South Africa.
The council said in the same season (2016/17), global maize ending stocks were estimated at 218 million tons, up by 5 percent from the previous season.
Sihlobo said the country would be able to produce 10.5 million tons of maize per annum if the weather conditions improved as expected.
“What is more important is that the maize price will come out of the 2014 high levels. We will also be in a position to export 1 million tons as a result of the improvement,” he said.
In January the price of maize per ton escalated. The average price of white maize reached a high of R5 200 a ton. This was 66 percent higher than a year ago, while yellow maize, at R3 200 a ton, was up 30 percent year on year.
Sihlobo said on the global front, there were large maize supplies in the market.
Paul Makube, a senior agricultural economist at First National Bank, said the improved conditions would be good news to the local farmers as they suffered losses during the drought, the worst in more than 30 years.
“The weather conditions will definitely encourage farmers to increase their maize plantations in the next season,” Makube said. “The severe drought seems to be passing, giving way for La Nina. This will bring better crop yields.”
Makube said it would be too early though to expect food prices like maize meal to drop in the new year. As the maize production increases, the price of meat can be affected as the animals depend on grain for their feeds.
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