Johannesburg - If consumers are feeling the steep hike in the price of food now, they should brace themselves for worse to come in the coming months.
It is expected that from next month, the real effect of the drought will kick in and prices will soar.
So said Professor Mary Scholes from the Wits School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences.
“Unfortunately, because it’s been so dry this year, the impact on productivity, especially of livestock, grasses - what they need to eat, and cereal production, will have a major impact, so we will see food prices increasing,” said Scholes.
She suspected cereal prices would continue to be at an all-time high between next month and August.
“Usually, they would harvest maize in January, late February, so we will know what the yields are by February or March, then there will be a knock-on effect for at least another six months,” she said.
She said areas affected by the drought were unlikely to get any relief until the end of March because the El Nino system would continue to dominate weather patterns, meaning southern and east Africa would continue to experience very high temperatures.
“We might get late summer rainfall after March. The severity of the storms, when we do get a rainfall event, might be a high-intensity hail event with low-intensity rain,” she said.
The SA Pork Producers’ Organisation (Sappo) said pork prices were also expected to sky-rocket.
“Even if good rains fall now, it will be too late for many farmers to recover from the knock,” said the organisation.
Sappo chief executive Simon Streicher said: “Up to 60 percent of pig feed is comprised of maize and because maize farmers have been unable to plant decent crops this season, the price for available yellow maize increased since February 2015 by 70 percent.
“Many pork producers are in difficulty.”
Streicher said farmers were looking to maintain the same level of production as in the past but with limited and increasingly expensive resources.
“Producing the same quality and quantity of pork products in these conditions is a challenge and output will decrease. This will obviously have a domino effect on supply and demand and increases in pork prices are unavoidable,” he said.
In the meantime, price hikes are hitting street traders hard.
If the price of fresh produce does not drop in the next three months, Patrick Nkosi will have to close his vegetable vendor business.
The Soweto man has been selling vegetables on the sidewalk in Freedom Park for the past five years and has never experienced such a drastic rise in food prices.
“It’s the first time it has been so difficult. It has been difficult before, but this time it’s much worse.”
“It’s very, very high. It makes it impossible to sell. We’re losing a lot of money,” the exasperated man told The Star at the Joburg Market.
“I used to come here three times a week. Now maybe (I come) once a week. It’s very expensive to come buy here.”
Nkosi used to sell a 10kg bag of potatoes for R34; they now go for R75. He said customers were also feeling the pinch and he was making half the profit he used to.
He was concerned about how he would support his large family if his business folded.
“I’m the only breadwinner. If this business closes, then it’s hunger for me,” he said.
Bigger fresh produce businesses have also been affected. Michael Carreira, co-owner of the Randburg Wholesale Market in Ferndale, said they were also experiencing a decrease in profits.
“Obviously the higher prices mean there’s less room to make profit. When prices are reasonable, you can try make a bit of profit and it sells,” he said.
He had noticed a change in the buying patterns of his customers.
“I can see money’s tight. Even a R1 or R2 difference makes a difference. You see people are only buying the essentials like potatoes.”
The manager of Apple Queens Commodity Brokers, one of the shops at the Joburg Market, said cabbages had gone up from R30 for 25kg to R110, while 18kg of bananas had gone up to R130 from R60.
Terence Mari said where most of these products were normally sold for between R10 and R50 a bag, they now cost buyers between R60 and R110.
THE STAR