As I sat reading the final election results on a public table on Sunday, a couple in front of me stared at a news headline about the EFF and mumbled something about South Africa heading the same way as Zimbabwe. It’s a tired and outdated point of view that occasionally rears its ugly head.
It’s a view that advertises ignorance - partly of the history of Zimbabwe, but mostly of the structure, strength and stability of South Africa. Stable does not mean unwavering; stable high-rise buildings also shake in the wind and tremble when an earthquake passes underfoot. But they do not fall. This year’s municipal elections have shown that South Africa may waiver, shake and at times tremble as it walks the path of a multicultural society in a nascent democracy, but it moves ever further from falling.
While the democracies of middle-income countries such as Brazil and Turkey crumble into corruption and autocratic rule, references to dictatorship by our own president are punished in the polls. The South African electorate is becoming more sophisticated and accountability is now more important than loyalty.
Under the banner of legacy, South Africa’s electorate was asked to tolerate corruption and it said no. It was asked to tolerate manipulation of the media and it said no. It was asked to rally to the calls of racial extremism and it said no.
While anecdotal exceptions always exist, the overriding message of South Africans is that they want a more integrated and progressive society whose leadership is chosen on its ability to deliver the needs of the people. Most importantly, South Africans fought for the leadership they want through a well managed, free, fair and transparent system of elections.
In the spotlight
The world was watching. The Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera and the Wall Street Journal all put South Africa in the spotlight. They showed a story of how public protest was lodged at the polls without the tribal violence that plagues the people of Kenya, the hate speech defining the elections of the US or even the lack of accountability of defeat in the UK.
Last week, South Africa became a role model to the world. While the strength of democracy prevailed, the strength of the economy is likely to take a knock. South Africa is entering new ground and while this may be positive, it is unpredictable and investment will wither with uncertainty until new leaders have shown their capabilities.
The DA and the EFF, for the first time, find themselves in a position of significant decision-making power. The DA are leaders in policy-making in Cape Town, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay and possibly Johannesburg depending on the outcome of the coalition arrangements. The EFF are the dealmakers regarding how those coalitions play out. But the DA needs to prove that it has the capacity to scale up its track record in the Western Cape and the EFF needs to show that it can manage compromise and collaboration.
The ANC will look inwards. The level of disruption that will cause to the country depends on how responsibly it manages internal conflict. The economy will be helped if it steps up to the plate and meets voters on the areas of discontent that drove their vote to the opposition: service delivery, job creation and transparent governance. But if instead it chooses to try and cover up its shortfalls with short-term handouts, increased propaganda and populist policies, then the economy is likely to slow even further and tip back into recession.
Ratings agencies are immune to sentiment. However positive the outcome of a strong election process is for the future of South Africa, they are solely focussed on economic growth and the government’s ability to service its debts. The election results have increased the probability of a ratings downgrade at the end of the year.
Transition to the new balance of power will be characterised by sluggish policy-making, stronger opposition to all new propositions and less alignment across the country. These are all necessary evils, but while the people of South Africa cheer the success of its democratic process, economic growth will arrive late to the party.
* Pierre Heistein is the instructor of UCT’s Applied Economics for Smart Decision Making course. Follow him on Twitter @PierreHeistein.
* The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Independent Media.
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