Deon de Lange
Political Bureau
Julius Malema, whose political career now hangs by the thinnest of threads, will continue serving as leader of the ANC Youth League until further notice, ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu has confirmed.
Confusion reigned this weekend after the ANC’s national disciplinary committee of appeals (NDCA) upheld a ruling by the national disciplinary committee (NDC) which found Malema and other youth leaders guilty in November of sowing division within the ANC and bringing the party into disrepute.
The NDC’s decision to suspend Malema for five years was upheld by the appeals committee when it delivered its verdict on Saturday. However, it also decided Malema could give evidence in mitigation before the national disciplinary committee, but that the ANC would in turn be allowed to argue in aggravation. For Malema, this means the length of his suspension could either be reduced, or increased.
When the NDC found Malema guilty it also decided that he serve a two-year suspension as a result of pleading guilty to sowing divisions during his first disciplinary hearing in 2010 – and that this would run concurrently with the five-year suspension. While the chairman of the appeals committee, Cyril Ramaphosa, made no mention on Saturday of whether the earlier suspension would take immediate effect, ANC spokesman Keith Khoza told journalists that it would.
But the ANC at the weekend distanced itself from the statement.
“Cde Keith has already apologised for speaking out of turn and without a mandate on a matter that resides with the NDC and other leading structures of the ANC,” Mthembu said in a statement.
Speaking to Justice Mahala on The Justice Factor yesterday, Mthembu said people should not be
“so hasty to remove people from their desks” and to allow “ANC processes to take their (course)”.
“(Malema) remains ANC Youth League president until these processes have taken their course,” Mthembu stated.
It could not be established whether Malema was attending the NEC meeting in Pretoria at the weekend.
Writing online for Politicsweb, political analyst Eusebius McKaiser argued yesterday that the ANC “forgot” to confirm whether it had informed Malema that his previous sentence now kicks in.
“This is a loose end that will cause confusion for a day or three. They need to inform him in order to give effect to the previous suspended order… ”
Speculation is now mounting as to whether Malema’s deputy, Ronald Lamola, will step into his shoes. The appeals committee’s decision has fuelled debate about ANCYL succession. Lamola, seen as a staunch ally of Malema, could face a challenge from treasurer Pule Mabe, who previously challenged Malema for the youth league leadership. The organisation may be forced to call a national conference to elect an entirely new leadership.
Given that Malema continued to mock Zuma in public – for instance, singing songs about the “shower man” – even while his disciplinary proceedings were under way, analysts have suggested that Malema could end up with an even stiffer sentence after evidence is heard in mitigation or aggravation of his sentence.
“The chances of a reduced sentence are zero... And all that (arguments in mitigation) will achieve is to keeping Malema politically on a life support system for a little while longer. It will not stave off the eventual outcome – political demise,” McKaiser argued.
Another possibility is that Malema may challenge the ANC in court. City Press yesterday quoted “lawyers close to the case” as saying Malema had already “started preparing papers” in case he decided to go that route.
However, political analyst Karima Brown noted that, while this was technically possible, Malema had effectively closed that avenue himself by having previously taken other ANC members to task for dragging the party to the courts over internal disputes.
McKaiser agreed that the “political cost of a court battle would ruin Malema”.