The article “Water: waiting on a miracle” by Lisa Isaacs in the Cape Times of May 19, 2017, leaves the impression that the current water crisis in Cape Town is not only the result of poor rainfall but also of a number of poor decisions taken by the authorities.
This conclusion is drawn from the statements made in the article and not on the wisdom of hindsight.
Investing money in water supply development projects to reduce the risk of a water supply failure in case of adverse weather conditions is akin to taking out insurance. The statement “that it had not been practical to set aside billions for a need that might not come while there were more pressing humanitarian needs”, is regarded as a very risky and irresponsible approach when it comes to the water supply to a metropole such as Cape Town. The article does not indicate what the assessed risks of a water supply failure were at the time nor the date when the decision was taken to gamble on the “do nothing option”.
Using past records to model the future is definitely not foolproof, but can provide an estimate of the severity and risk of possible future droughts worse than those recorded in the past.
It is not clear how regularly after the “do nothing option” was adopted, the estimated short-term risks of water supply failures were updated, and used to review past decisions on water rationing and the development of new water schemes for Cape Town.
The heavy reliance the authorities have placed on water demand management has already placed a significant burden on consumers and this could very well increase, even with average river flows during the rainy season.
Water supply managers need to be prepared to deal with the unexpected or Black Swan events, ie what you do not know is more important than what you do know. Adequate water supply and its responsible management must remain a non-optional top priority.