Pretoria - Heavy rains could fall across the country during November, December and January, but they would be insufficient to replenish water reservoirs depleted by two years of extreme drought, experts say.
Dam levels were extremely low and while the rain could help them to recover, the continued use of water while it fell into the dams would not help, said Department of Water engineer Trevor Balzer.
“Ordinarily, in good rainfall, it would take the dams up to two years to recover fully, but with the levels as low as they are, it could be up to five years before they would be comfortably full,” he said.
Balzer was speaking on Tuesday at a seasonal forecast update briefing convened by the South African Weather Service in Pretoria.
He and other weather specialists said all signs led to the prediction of heavy rains during summer.
“There is an indication of above-normal rainfall conditions towards early summer,” said Lucky Ntsangwane, research manager at the weather service.
Last summer’s El Niño phenomenon brought extreme heat conditions, drying up dams and devastating the agricultural sector.
Ntsangwane said recovery from the drought could take a while, and that had to be taken into account as summer approached. “South Africa remains under severe water stress,” he said.
In August, the Water and Sanitation Department introduced restrictions for municipalities supplied by Rand Water.
Rand Water had to throttle a 15 percent quota to domestic consumers and 20 percent to the farming community.
These restrictions would remain until the end of the hydrological year in May, Balzer said. “We will then do another assessment.
“It is not a case of not having enough water to put in the system, but consumers need to be guided so they do not outstrip what we have.”
Balzer said the 14 dams that formed part of the Vaal River system were very low. The Vaal Dam stood at 26.83 percent, he said, adding that 25 percent was the first critical level.
“Once dam levels dip to below 20 percent, we pull in strategic users like Eskom and others in a bid to save water,” Balzer said.
The experts said all indications pointed to a future of long dry spells, late onset of rains and very wet periods.
The situation could change as the atmospheric pressure and all other weather drivers changed, said Ntsangwane. “We are dealing with a huge body of water that is the ocean. It can be very unpredictable.”
Meanwhile, a joint operational centre is being established in Gauteng to plan and improve the state of readiness in the wake of the steady decrease of water levels in the province.
As of Monday night, water levels in the Vaal River system were at 27 percent.
The Gauteng Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, the Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water are establishing a joint operational centre which will be responsible for monitoring water levels, monitoring water restrictions and for any form of disaster management associated with the water shortage in the province.
MEC for Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs Paul Mashatile said the heat and lack of sufficient rainfall posed an imminent danger of even worse water scarcity. He called for drastic saving by every water user.
“If we are to secure enough water for each citizen amid this very real water crisis, we need to pull together and do every bit we can to save and preserve our water resources,” he said.