Global automotive analysts are pretty much unanimous: the outcome of President Barack Obama's proposed fuel economy and exhaust emissions standards for the USA will ultimately change the world's carpark.
The most likely result between now and the planned 2016 rollout: SUVs will get smaller, diesel engines will become more prevalent, carmakers will offer hybrid powertrains in just about everything, more carmakers will introduce plug-in electric cars and sales of small/medium cars will soar.
The proposal would require the US passenger vehicle fleet to average 35.5 miles per US gallon (7.35 litres per 100km) of fuel by 2016, saving 1.8 billion barrels of oil a year. It would also instruct the US Environmental Protection Agency to regulate CO2 exhaust emissions for the first time to 250g/mile.
The US initiative marks the strictest plan ever for increasing fuel standards for passenger vehicles, sharply raising pressure on struggling carmakers to make more efficient cars and bakkies. It will also add to the cost of vehicles. “The status quo is no longer acceptable,'' Obama said. “We have done little to increase fuel efficiency of America's cars and trucks for decades.'' Some vehicles, mostly made or imported into the US by Japanese, South Korean and European carmakers, already meet or exceed the standards set to be proposed. Carmakers worldwide - including General Motors - voiced support for the plan.
“GM and the auto industry benefit by having more consistency and certainty to guide our product plans,'' said GM chief executive Fritz Henderson. Toyota US chief Jim Lentz said the single national standard will enhance vehicle choice for consumers.
In Germany, senior BMW executive Friedrich Eichiner stated: “Consistency of legislation and planning certainty are not only crucial for synchronising product development and regulatory requirements but also for enabling companies to remain viable, profitable and sustainable.''
Carmakers have already perfected much of the technology to meet the stricter standards. Direct-injection engines improve fuel economy by around 6 percent. Smaller turbocharged engines reduce weight while preserving the performance of a big engine. Fuel economy gains can be as much as 15 per cent. Dual-clutch transmissions, continuously variable transmissions, and six-speed manuals and automatics contribute to gains of between 5 and 10 per cent. Stop-start systems. Often called mild hybrids.
The technology offers 10-15 per cent fuel savings. Common-rail diesels are an accepted 30 per cent more fuel-efficient than the same capacity petrol engine, one reason for the growth of diesels in the passenger car market.
The US Government is also looking into the use of diesel hybrid train engines and improved railway networks to ease oil imports and the long-haul movement on United States roads of heavy freight rigs. One report says trucking companies will have to invest so heavily to meet the proposed fuel and emissions standards that some operators will go out of business. Rail freight, it said, “could be re-invented with a ‘green’ image. The future of new-technology rail looks better all the time.'' -The New Zealand Herald