Gaborone - The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) says a “higher than normal” number of people are already facing acute food insecurity in six Southern African countries and warns that the number could rise to nearly 17 million by March 2017 after three consecutive disastrous crop farming seasons.
In its latest Southern Africa food security outlook report, FEWSNET said the El Nino-induced drought which overshadowed the 2015/2016 farming season destroyed crops and left the region saddled with a cereal deficit of between 6 and 8 million metric tonnes.
In Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho and Madagascar, more households would enter the Integrated Food Security Classification Phase 3 of “acute” food insecurity throughout 2016.
“FEWSNET estimates that a higher than normal number of people are currently facing acute food insecurity and about 17 million people will be in Crisis (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Phase 3) between January-March 2017, requiring immediate assistance.
“At the height of the harvest period, many poor households in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, and Swaziland currently face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes.
“Households in these countries are facing consumption gaps because they did not produce much staple this season and labour incomes are well-below average, constraining food access for households that are relying on market purchases for consumption much earlier than usual. For households in many drought-affected areas in the region, this is the second or third consecutive year of poor production,” FEWSNET said.
The agency said although there could be cereal exports from Tanzania, Zambia and international markets to the needy countries, such supplies would not be enough to mitigate the regional food deficit of up to 8 million metric tonnes. Further, food prices are expected to rise on the back of high demand for cereals in the same period.
“Maize prices, which are already above last year and the five-year average, are expected to rise further and remain significantly above these levels especially in Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe. Some of the main drivers of the high food prices are low maize supplies and substantially higher demand for market purchases,” the report stated.
However, FEWS-NET predicted a normal start to the 2016-17 cropping season across the region. According to a report released by the agency's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) last month, a “La Nina” event, which tends to be associated with above-average rainfall in Southern Africa, is likely to develop over the region at the beginning of the 2016-17 farming season.
African News Agency