Johannesburg - Now that Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi is most likely to be shown the door following his refusal to cooperate with a forensic probe, the bleeding federation will turn its attention inwards. In particular in bringing back into the fold those unions alienated by the actions of the dominant faction.
First it has to win back these rebel unions, of which there are between five and seven, depending on who you talk to, what issue you're talking about, and what week it is.
Cosatu must also find some way to rebuild its finances, which now have an annual R11 million hole as a result last year's decision to expel its largest affiliate Numsa.
This followed the union deciding to extend its scope and organise along value chains, which the majority of Cosatu's affiliates have viewed as Numsa stepping onto their turf.
Even tougher than the financial surgery will be attempts to rebuild membership figures which took a 340 000 dip when Numsa was shown the door.
Neither task will be simple.
The federation will attempt to rebuild membership numbers by refocusing on shop floor and socio-economic issues. But this cannot happen in the midst of a rebellion by at least five unions demanding that Numsa be reinstated.
And this all has to happen at a time when Cosatu is in a deficit of more than R14-million and its financial squeeze can be felt across its personnel and operational budgets.
Political campaigns cost money, and Cosatu simply doesn't have it.
While the federation has to focus its attention on many fronts, attempting to get the rebel affiliates back into Cosatu's fold is the most crucial for now.
The federation, even without Numsa still the largest in Africa with some 1.9 million members, has been riddled with internal factional battles for years.
The divisions escalated when nine unions demanded a special national congress to elect new leaders and debate the future political direction of the federation.
Since the call was made in October 2013, it has been stalled by the dominant faction, which then went about the process of expelling the leader of the nine unions Numsa.
Some much water has flowed under the bridge now that it appears even winning the special congress fight will be a pyrrhic victory for the Numsa allies.
But as one union leader who sides with Numsa told Independent Media, the reinstatement of the metalworkers will be the “make or break for everything”.
Seven of Cosatu's remaining affiliates want Numsa back in the federation as they believe the union was unfairly and unconstitutionally booted. Five of those affiliates are also refusing to participate in any national Cosatu meetings until Numsa's expulsion is revoked.
The union has an opportunity to makes its case for reinstatement at the congress and it can also go to court to attempt to get back in.
But the majority of Cosatu's affiliates have made it crystal clear that are not interested in Numsa’s return.
It seems clear the faction now in control of Cosatu wants the rebel unions back in the fold, but it is equally clear that they will have this only on their terms.
For the rebels, they will have to decide if what they call their principled decision to support Numsa is worth leaving the federation.
Numsa has always been on the left of Cosatu and supported a union movement independent of the ANC.
Although they lost that battle in the 90s, they have again started agitating for this line because of the painfully slow transformation of the country's economy.
Numsa believes that the ANC is to blame for this and Government’s National Development Plan to grow the economy is anchored in neo-liberalism.
It is this political rupture that is the real reason Numsa find themselves out of Cosatu.
While its allies, and even some of Cosatu's other affiliates opposed to Numsa, are deeply unhappy with the current direction of the ANC, it remains their political home. They also know that it is because of Cosatu’s alliance with the ruling party that pro-worker policies and legislation, like the Labour Relations Act, have materialised.
Senior Cosatu insiders believe that they are persuading rebel unions to change tack slowly but surely. They argue unions should be making their case internally instead of doing it outside through parallel processes.
They say that Denosa's decision to attend this week's CEC even though it has a resolution to support Numsa’s return, is a case in point.
Another example is the SA Municipal Workers Union announcing that it no longer believes a special national congress is necessary and all issues can be addressed at an ordinary congress.
“We continue to persuade them. We believe that many have seen the light and that they will come back inside,” said the leader, who did not want to be identified.
Officially, Cosatu’s office bearers will write to each affiliate asking them to return after being instructed to do so by the CEC.
The next weeks and months are going to be an especially trying time for Cosatu’s rebel unions. Whether their leaders decide to stand by Numsa or return to the federation, it is likely to cause divisions in those unions.
The existential question for Cosatu is this: do they still have enough to offer these millions of disillusioned, or will they see greater numbers follow Numsa, perhaps even Vavi, to a new federation and a new political home?
Sunday Independent