Cape Town - The department of energy on Tuesday unveiled a new base case energy policy which envisions bringing on line a first new nuclear reactor by 2037 but also adding significant gas and renewable capacity to the grid.
By 2050, coal and nuclear will make up the bulk of the country’s energy mix, though the department has pushed back the delivery date for added nuclear capacity by seven years and scaled back the projected use of coal.
Solar energy will contribute 17 600 megawatt to the grid and wind power another 37 400 according to the draft Integrated Resource Plan released by Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson, along with the draft Integrated Energy Plan.
The IRP base case scenario puts the volume of nuclear energy in the grid at 20 gigawatt by 2050 and also provides for an additional 1 000 megawatt of hydro power to come online 20 years later, around 2030.
The department said nuclear power had been priced at 5.4 million dollar per megawatt for planning purposes and the required volume for 2037 fixed at 1 359 megawatt of new capacity. The lead-in time for the new reactor would be roughly ten years, meaning that construction must start from 2025.
The initial outline for the nuclear procurement plan was adding 9 600 megawatt to the grid by 2030.
The resource plan allows for various scenarios that would influence policy decisions. Notable among these is the impact ambitious carbon emissions targets would have on the use of coal, potentially hastening the start of the controversial nuclear build.
Eskom’s chief executive for generation, Matshela Koko, said despite the extended deadline for delivery of new nuclear capacity the utility would therefore proceed with a request for proposals by the end of the year to test the market.
“If there is a carbon budget, it is 2025,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the briefing by the department.
However, should the date for bringing online a first new reactor be brought forward to 2025, the additional capacity at this point would remain 1 359 megawatt.
Koko stressed that inviting tenders did not amount to inking a contract and said if necessary, the country would do as it did in 2008 and hold off on the project. Eskom is working on a levelised price - the net cost of a unit of energy at which the capital outlay and operating cost of the reactor would be recovered - of no higher than 100 cents per kilowatt hour.
The department said it had drafted the base case scenario on the assumption of a moderate decline in emissions.
Another important variable, energy department deputy director general Ompi Aphane said, was the quantity of South Africa’s shale gas reserves and how these could contribute or not to meeting the country’s energy needs.
Eskom was recently named as the implementing agency for the nuclear build project instead of the department of energy. Critics of the project say the country can ill afford it and it offers vast scope for corruption, a perception that has firmed following former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela’s findings that Eskom may have acted improperly to advance the business interests of the Gupta family.
The IRP is open to public comment until February and a final version which takes these submissions into account will be approved by Cabinet towards the middle of next year.
African News Agency