A confidential cable from the US Embassy in Pretoria to Washington suggested former president Thabo Mbeki’s days were numbered nearly five months before the ANC sacked him.
The source of the information was Moe Shaik, then one of Zuma’s most trusted advisers and now head of the SA Secret Service, at a meeting the cable describes as “particularly pointed and painful”.
The classified cable, dated May 16, 2008, is among those released by Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks. It details a meeting between Shaik and a US embassy political officer, referred to as PolOff in the communications, two days earlier, on May 14.
“Meeting Shaik is always work, but this meeting was particularly pointed and painful, with Shaik coming across as vengeful, insecure and antagonistic,” the cable states.
“Over time, PolOff has managed to build some rapport with him. For example, during PolOff’s last meeting, Shaik admitted he was looking forward to the birth of his first child (whom he jokingly referred to as “the little dictator”), and even sent PolOff an SMS when his wife went into labour.
“However, during this meeting (which he called), he refused to be drawn into any personal conversation.” Instead, Shaik had spent much of the 90-minute meeting “berating the US in general (for ‘never recognising a bus when it hits us’), but also the FBI and State Department in particular”, the embassy official reported.
“He made a point of telling PolOff that ‘he knows all about the FBI’s role in selling South Africa the idea of a law-enforcement agency with no oversight’.”
This was a reference to the now-defunct Scorpions, later accused of conducting a political vendetta against Zuma.
He also criticised a visit to Africa by then Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer “for coming to the continent to talk to leaders about Zimbabwe, calling US officials ‘stupid and arrogant’,” the cable says.
Mbeki was recalled by the ANC in September 2009, ahead of the end of his term and only a few months after he lost a bruising battle to hang on to his leadership of the ANC at Polokwane in December 2007.
At the May meeting, the US political officer – a woman – was told by Shaik that Zuma was likely to become president of the country before the general elections, scheduled for early 2009.
“When asked if the Zuma camp had enough votes in Parliament (three-quarters) needed to call a vote of no-confidence, Shaik replied: ‘That would not be an issue’.”
According to the cable, Shaik asked the political officer if she had ever considered a scenario where Mbeki’s entire cabinet deserted him, forcing him to resign.
She asked why Mbeki could not simply appoint a new cabinet but Shaik “answered with another question, asking: ‘Who would join Mbeki’s cabinet now? It would be suicide’.”
Shaik told the US official that momentum was building in the ANC for Mbeki’s removal – and that the business community was “begging” them to do it, the cable reports.
The following day the political officer met a French diplomat who confirmed he was hearing the same thing from the Zuma camp and other diplomats, “especially the Germans”.
However, he did not believe Mbeki would give way so easily, the cable says.
“He added that there is no evidence that Mbeki is willing to cave to the Zuma camp, pointing out that Mbeki is still putting off ANC Sec
retary General Kgalema Motlanthe’s inclusion into his cabinet.
In a note, the political officer said when she asked Shaik what position Motlanthe would take, he “snidely said: ‘Why don’t you ask your friend Mbeki?’ “
Political counsellor Raymond Brown, who crafted the cable to his Washington superiors, commented that Shaik was “right in pointing out that there are many in the Zuma camp who wish to take full revenge on Mbeki and end his tenure early”.
“Shaik, more than anyone, likely personalises the issue given the fact that he blames the Scorpions for sending his brother (Schabir Shaik) to prison…
“However, it is unclear if the Zuma camp has reached a tipping point, especially within Mbeki’s cabinet, which has remained virtually unchanged for his entire tenure.”
The cable noted: “There are also advantages to allowing Mbeki to stay in power for his full term, a fact even Shaik has admitted in previous meetings.
“Mbeki has had better days politically, but the Zuma camp, for all its talk, is unlikely to come in and fix all of South Africa’s problems overnight.
“Combating crime, solving South Africa’s electricity shortages; increasing employment; improving service delivery; and convincing Zimbabwean President (Robert) Mu- gabe to step down are not easy fixes.
“The fact is the longer Mbeki stays in power, the better Zuma will look – at least in the short-term – when elections come around next year,” Brown concluded.
Shaik could not be reached for comment.
US embassy spokeswoman Ellizabeth Trudeau said today: “As a matter of policy the US Department of State will never confirm the veracity of stolen documents.”
She said cables were “spot reports” – individuals’ accounts of meetings, or press summaries presented privately or as classified information “for Washington to inform foreign policy”.
“They are not public statements and are never meant to be released. Because of their nature, (cables) are not full, thought-out policy statements and can be very open to interpretation,” she said.
Trudeau said any embassy in the world sent out dozens of such cables each week “and it is possible to take them out of context”. - Cape Argus