A high-powered meeting will take place in Durban over the next few days, with the ANC in KZN appealing to their Gauteng counterparts to allow President Jacob Zuma to return for a second term unopposed.
While Zuma is known to have the backing of his home province, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe counts on the support of Gauteng. It is also a key co-ordinator of the lobby to have Zuma replaced; so it’s the province that KZN needs to get on-side.
Should Gauteng snub the offer, Zuma’s team is expected to make a formal approach to Cyril Ramaphosa to run as his deputy in the December election.
“We will engage Gauteng in the hope of working together to avoid a bitter contest in December,” KZN provincial secretary Sihle Zikalala said on Friday.
The closely guarded gathering, convened by the KZN team and which will bring together about 45 men and women from either side, is the first real indicator of the president’s fear of defeat to Motlanthe, 10 weeks from the party election.
“All we want is to try to find one another for the sake of party unity,” Zikalala said.
An exploratory meeting has already taken place between the two provincial chairmen, Zweli Mkhize and Paul Mashatile.
Mkhize refused to divulge details of the talks. He described this week’s meeting as natural – “the kind of engagements we should be having as provinces. There is nothing confidential about it.”
He would not say when the talks would be held, but it’s understood the meeting was initially scheduled for tomorrow if the Gauteng provincial general council, which met yesterday, agreed to the move.
Provincial secretary David Makhura would not answer questions about the latest development, while provincial spokesman Nat Kekana offered little insight.
“Yes, we will meet KZN, like we have met Limpopo and other provinces,” he said. “It’s what we do. And we prefer it to lobby groups meeting in dark corridors. The more ANC leaders can meet and talk about the solutions to the challenges we face, the better.”
What is in it for Gauteng or Motlanthe is not clear. If Zuma is already showing signs of weakness, it would be a positive signal for Motlathe to go it alone. His decision to launch his biography on the eve of the election is widely interpreted as his intention to do just that.
However, the two sides could consider a power-sharing deal through which Motlanthe would take over as state president at the general elections in 2014 while Zuma would remain party president, something Zikalala did not dismiss outright.
A resolution has been in place since 2007 about a two centres of power scenario, he noted.
“There is also a thing called political insurance,” said a junior member of Gauteng, “that protects sitting presidents from prosecution by allowing them to stay in office. If his time is up, he must go. This is not Polokwane. There are no victims this time. This is about a man who is facing a serious challenge.”
Any deal with Motlanthe would hit a brick wall. It’s understood KZN would not accept Tokyo Sexwale, the man billed as a potential deputy to Motlanthe, while Gauteng would not be prepared to drop him.
Gauteng might also approach the talks with the hope of courting one of the KZN heavyweights to fill a glaring gap in their current line-up. A weak point on their slate is the absence of a heavy-hitting contender from KZN.
Mention of Ramaphosa’s name is not new, though it is the first time he has been suggested as only a fall-back candidate. One of Zuma’s so-called lobbyists said that if Motlanthe were to align with Zuma, Ramaphosa had “too big a profile” to accept any of the other four positions.