Miami - A large weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days, forecasters at the United States National Hurricane Centre said on Thursday.
The mass of thunderstorms had a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within 48 hours and could bring flooding rain to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and southern Florida, the forecasters said.
It stretched from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf and was expected to move slowly northwest to north in the next two or three days. It was too early to know whether the system would threaten energy interests clustered in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
“It'll probably be out in the central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Beyond that it's very difficult to say,” said Jack Beven, a senior hurricane forecaster at the hurricane centre.
It would become a tropical depression if it wraps around and develops a closed wind circulation. It would become Tropical Storm Debby if those winds reach 63km/h.
“This one probably will not jump straight to a tropical storm,” Beven said. “It's very broad and will take time to consolidate.”
Nonetheless, the forecasters said that “interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend”.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chris strengthened into a hurricane in the North Atlantic off Newfoundland on Thursday but posed no threat to land, forecasters said.
The season's first Atlantic hurricane had top winds of 120km/h and was about 1 000km southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
It formed unusually far north for an early season hurricane, and was expected to make a slow loop before weakening over cooler waters during the weekend.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but got off to an early start this year. Tropical Storm Alberto quickly fizzled off South Carolina and Tropical Storm Beryl soaked the south-eastern United States in May.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be nine to 15 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin this year, with four to eight strengthening into hurricanes. - Reuters