In uncharted waters after Trump's triumph

Outgoing US Ambassador to South Africa, Patrick Gaspard, speaks to guests from numerous embassies, business and civil society and the media, at an election breakfast at his official residence in Pretoria on Wednesday. Picture: Masi Losi

Outgoing US Ambassador to South Africa, Patrick Gaspard, speaks to guests from numerous embassies, business and civil society and the media, at an election breakfast at his official residence in Pretoria on Wednesday. Picture: Masi Losi

Published Nov 10, 2016

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Pretoria - The US is reverberating from the outcome of the presidential election which Donald Trump won.

The billionaire property tycoon swept the heartland of America, painting the vast majority of states red on the US electoral map, while Clinton took the east and west coasts, largely representing the urban vote.

The Republicans retained the majority in the House of Representatives with 239 seats to the Democrats 193, and took control of the Senate with 51 seats to 48.

Trump's strategy had been to carry the traditional swath of traditionally "red", or Republican states, as well as the four key rust belt states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

His electoral success exceeded expectations even from within the Republican party.

Trump largely appealed to the struggling middle class. His message that the North American Free Trade Agreement had destroyed the industrial states of the upper midwest resonated with the broken and depressed.

His calls to US corporations to protect American jobs by committing to making cars locally as opposed to in Mexico, and making phones at home instead of in China, struck a chord.

"We are entering uncharted waters as Trump has not had a career in either politics or the public service," US Ambassador Patrick Gaspard told Independent Media on Wednesday.

"I appreciate the anxiety in South Africa, but we must remember that while the US president may have his own vision, the US Congress will have a say in US policies abroad."

Gaspard emphasised the fact that the US Congress had shown bi-partisan support for America's Africa policy in terms of electrifying Africa, manufacturing and agribusiness through the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, and investment in renewable energy.

"South Africa may benefit from the reset of US relations with Russia under Trump, given South Africa's close relations with Russia through the Brics alliance."

Dr Garth le Pere, extraordinary professor at the University of Pretoria said: "Trump has no compass for what he is going to do, and what he represents is an isolationist retreat to US exceptionalism."

The demonstrations in Manhattan seemed to bear out that prediction, with thousands chanting, "We hate Muslims, we hate blacks, we want our great country back."

According to Le Pere, two weeks ago the election was Clinton's to lose. "Clinton was at a double digit lead, but following the email fiasco and the WikiLeaks scandal, they shattered confidence in her trustworthiness, and the pendulum swung in Trump's favour."

Clinton did notably worse than expected among African American and young voters than Obama had done in previous elections. This was partially due to election apathy, concerns regarding Clinton's integrity, and a failure to get out the vote.

According to Dr David Monyae, co-director of the University of Johannesburg's Confucius Institute, "there has been a definitive shift to the right in the US and globally, as we witnessed recently with Brexit".

"We are likely to see less US involvement in Africa, and tough trade deals which might be detrimental to South Africa and Africa."

The most controversial US election in modern history was largely fought on the basis of personality. As president-elect, Trump is without a compass to guide either his domestic or foreign policies. But what is clear is that his election will usher in a re-ordering of US politics and a realignment of international relations.

For the first time since World War II, the US has chosen a president who has promised to reverse the internationalism of its past presidents.

Trump's election is likely to lead to a disengagement of America from the world.

In Europe and Asia he has promised to re-write the rules of America's modern alliances, trade deals and foreign aid.

He has suggested that he will strengthen relations with Russia, while confronting Iran. Japan is concerned that he may pull US troops out of the island nation, and he could disengage from the Middle East.

The Palestinian ambassador to South Africa, Hashem Aldajani, told Independent Media that he hopes Trump will include the Middle East as a foreign policy priority.

"The recognition of an independent Palestinian state is an important issue as it is at the core of problems in the region."

It is widely hoped that Trump will not make good on his promise to temporarily bar Muslims immigrants from the US.

* Shannon Ebrahim is Group Foreign Editor

Independent Media

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