London -
Britain is on the brink of a “children’s epidemic” of swine flu as schools and nurseries reopen this week.
Doctors warned on Sunday night the outbreak - already one of the worst in a decade - could “explode” as at least nine million pupils return to their desks after the Christmas break.
Hot and crowded classrooms provide the perfect breeding ground for flu, which has claimed 39 lives since October, including 11 under-15’s.
Some anxious parents are even threatening to keep children at home.
Professor Steve Field, former chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, warned it would be “when people go back to work and school that we will, I suspect, see the sharpest rise, when we really see this become the children’s epidemic”.
And Professor John Oxford, Britain’s leading flu expert, said: “We can expect the number of cases to keep going up, possibly reaching epidemic levels before it peaks in the next two to four weeks.
“This virus thrives on close human contact, so we can expect an explosion of cases.”
The warning comes as fears grow that the virus has pushed the National Health Service to crisis point.
The number of intensive-care patients with suspected flu has risen dramatically in the past week to 738. In some hospitals, half the adult intensive care beds are taken up by flu victims, leading to routine operations being cancelled. International evidence suggests that up to 15 percent of those treated for swine flu in intensive care die.
If the 738 receiving treatment are suffering from swine flu, that could mean 100 more fatalities.
Hospitals are also running out of children’s intensive care beds, with seriously ill babies forced to travel as much as 160km for treatment.
Experts have accused the department of health of complacency, saying it has done too little, too late, to tackle flu.
Swine flu and influenza B have together claimed 39 lives since October, including 11 under-15’s, four of whom were under five. Only one victim was over 65.
During 2010’s flu outbreak, then Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson described under 14’s as “super spreaders” of the virus.
Although under-fours were most likely to catch swine flu, the government last week rejected calls to offer vaccines to those between six months and five years old, as was done in 2010.
Instead, the jab is being given only to those with underlying conditions such as asthma or heart complaints.
However, at least 15 of the recent victims were “healthy”, with no underlying illnesses.
The official number of cases, based on GP consultations, is 124 per 100 000 people - but doctors believe the true figure could be much higher as limited Christmas opening hours have put people off going to surgeries.
Among under-fours, the figures rise to 184 cases per 100 000. An epidemic is defined as 200 cases per 100 000.
Dr Mary Bousted, of the Association of Teachers and Lecturers, said schools would follow Department of Health advice.
She said: “There is no doubt whatsoever that schools are hotbeds of infection. When there is a virus going around, schools are ideal places because there are lots of kids in close proximity.”
Brian Lightman, of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “We advise parents to keep their children at home if they are unwell because they could infect others.
“But the main issue is about hygiene and advising children to wash their hands.”
Some parents are so worried that they are considering keeping their children out of school.
One mother wrote on a parenting website: “If the flu gets a lot worse than it is now, keeping some kids out could make a lot of sense.’
Another said: “Maybe a 14-day curfew is better because isolation may be the key to reducing mass infections.”
On Sundaqy night leading bacteriologist Professor Hugh Pennington accused the department of health of doing too little, too late.
Flu follows set patterns and the H1N1 strain - swine flu - was widely predicted to cause problems in 2010-2011.
Despite this, the annual vaccination advertising campaign was abandoned in the autumn, a victim of Coalition cuts. Vaccination rates are low among many eligible for the jab, including pregnant women.
Professor Pennington, of Aberdeen University, said vaccination of pregnant women was a “no-brainer” and a campaign pushing home the benefits of the jab would have saved lives.
And he said the milder than expected nature of earlier swine flu outbreaks appeared to have created a sense of complacency in the department of health.
He said: “Cynicism has crept in. It is as though they got tired of it. They lost sight of the fact the virus can still be nasty.”
The Department of Health called on parents to educate their children on good hygiene.
A spokesman said: “Children with underlying conditions should go to their GP and be vaccinated.”
He added that there was no national shortage of vaccine and denied the charges of complacency, saying the NHS was “more prepared than ever”.
Sainsbury’s said on sunday night it would give out Nectar loyalty points to shoppers who had in-house flu jabs. The jabs, said to be still available at most of the supermarket’s 245 pharmacies, cost £8 (R82) and earn 16 points. - Daily Mail