Max du Preez thinks fear of losing jobs and power are the only reasons Jacob Zuma is still in office.
Here are a few uncontestable facts about the president of South Africa, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma: He is physically unwell. A year ago, he was a surprisingly energetic 69 year old, but it has become clear over the last few months that a health issue is affecting him.
He is spending much of his energy trying to dodge criminal charges that will almost inevitably have to be reinstated. In the process, he has badly compromised the criminal justice system.
A large chunk of South Africans, including ANC supporters, believe he benefited unfairly from the upgrades at his private estate and find his denials, explanations and defensiveness unacceptable. His clan and his friends have benefited hugely from his term in office. Several members of his family have become multimillionaires since he became president five years ago. His ties to some super-wealthy business people are questionable.
He has been implicated in more scandals than any other ANC leader in the 102-year existence of the movement. His colleagues in the cabinet and in Luthuli House spend much of their energy defending him or inventing diversions to focus the attention elsewhere.
A large number of South Africans believe he is an embarrassment to the country and a sizeable number of ANC supporters believe he is an embarrassment to the ANC, also because of his regular unguarded utterances (like the statement that if PW Botha was given an airport in George, he was entitled to Nkandla) and his messy private life.
The ANC is more divided under his leadership than during any other period in the last five decades. Senior ANC leaders broke away to form Cope and then the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) after he became the leader of the ANC.
Cosatu is at war with itself, divided between pro- and anti-Zuma factions, and another new party is about to be launched by one of the strongest unions, Numsa.
Corruption and nepotism are far bigger problems today than they were during the presidencies of his predecessors.
Support for the ANC has waned in every region of the country except in his home province, KwaZulu-Natal.
Senior ANC figures have warned that “tribalism”, the one danger the ANC successfully countered during its long existence, has re-emerged during his leadership. The ANC’s support in the bigger metros has dwindled to close to 50 percent.
Provincial and local government have not improved during the last eight years, leading to almost daily protests and dozens of deaths.
The poor education given to township and rural youth has hardly improved in the last decade.
Policy has never been more confusing than during his reign. He championed the National Development Plan, but years later it is little more than a contested document. Nothing has come of his promises of a “second transition” and “radical economic transformation”.
Not a great track record, is it?
Why is the ANC leadership putting up with him? Thabo Mbeki arguably had a far better track record (HIV and Aids excluded) as president of the country and the party, and he was unceremoniously kicked out, so there is a precedent of replacing an unpopular leader.
Some say Luthuli House fears that it would lose too much support in KwaZulu-Natal if it axed Zuma and caused the ANC to go dangerously close to the 50 percent mark in the 2019 elections. This is not a groundless fear: the ANC’s support in that province has soared from 39 percent in 1994 to 64 percent this year and Zuma was an important reason for this growth.
But on the other side of this coin is that Zuma was one of the main reasons why the ANC was losing support, especially in Gauteng. It could be argued that an increasingly popular EFF, a steadily growing DA and the new workers party planned by Numsa pose a bigger threat to the ANC’s electoral support in 2019.
The ANC is not sticking to Zuma because it has no other competent leaders to replace him. Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, AU chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize are all more than able and suitable to serve as president of the party and the country.
We are left with a few other explanations why Luthuli House stands by Zuma (for now). One is fear: fear that the first dissidents will get the chop and lose their livelihood, fear that Zuma and his key supporters in the security establishment might have dirt on you and fear of facing a gossip campaign or even criminal prosecution if one crosses Zuma.
Another explanation is that key individuals and groups know that they would lose their power if the Zuma camp were ousted.
A primary example of this is the SACP.
Loyalty to the movement and the country aren’t among the explanations.
* Max du Preez is an author and columnist.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.