By the middle of this century, inland regions of South Africa could be a scorching three to four degrees hotter and by 2100 that outlook could be even more extreme – with a searing temperature rise of as much as six degrees predicted inland.
“We may not be here, but our children will be living in a very different world,” said Dr Tanya Abrahamse, the chief executive of the SA National Biodiversity Institute, when she presented some key findings of the draft Second National Communication yesterday.
The final report will be given to the Conference of the Parties, on strategies dealing with mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
“The key finding is that South Africa is very vulnerable (to climate change) as it stands,” said Abrahamse, speaking in Midrand.
The Department of Environmental Affairs was holding a workshop addressing the country’s preparations for the hosting of the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Durban at the end of the year, when global climate change negotiations kick off.
“What we know for sure is that carbon dioxide levels (are) 30 percent higher than pre-industrial levels. The surface air temperature has warmed significantly over much of South Africa since the 1950s.”
The scenario by 2050 is that, if unmitigated, coastal regions will warm by one to two degrees and by three to four degrees by 2100, but the report shows how it is in the interior that temperature rises will be worst.
“In the east of South Africa it will be wetter and drier than in the west. There will be variability in all the seasons… The only thing that is predictable is the unpredictability of rainfall, which makes it difficult to deal with adaptation measures…
“Even without climate change predictions, the predictions the Department of Water Affairs is making around water availability and the state of water in 2025 are extremely worrying,” said Abrahamse.
Rising temperatures could see the further spread of malaria and alien vegetation and bush encroachment, and could lead to declines in agriculture, where there will be “winners and losers” – the latter the under-resourced, small-scale farmer.
Edna Molewa, the Minister of Environmental Affairs, described climate change as arguably the biggest challenge facing humankind, and said all efforts would be made to ensure a “successful content outcome” of COP 17.
The country would also show the “best hospitality ever” for visitors.
The government was committed to working towards a “better life for all”, but this was threatened by natural disasters and the resultant loss of biodiversity, she said.
Many South Africans live in extreme poverty, which is exacerbated by climate change. “During the past few months our country has experienced severe rainfall and floods due to the La Niña phenomenon. These floods and severe droughts we are experiencing threaten lives, disrupt farming, damage infrastructure, and are expected to worsen as extreme weather patterns become more frequent due to climate change,” said Molewa.
Africa is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but can least afford to respond to its threats. “Leadership of the developed countries must begin to be felt in a positive manner,” she said, pointing to the low level of commitment by developed countries towards a fair, legally binding deal.
Vulnerable communities in villages and peri-urban areas who contribute the least to climate change need a healthy environment to survive, but it is under threat.
“Their experiences must find expression in this COP – an African COP.”
Formal negotiations, deliberated by South Africa, get under way in June. International Relations and Co-operation Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane said South Africa negotiated through several forums, including the Basic group of countries as well as the African grouping.
“Mexico does not belong to all these forums and there are high expectations for South Africa to deliver another miracle.” - Saturday Star