Will it be 2-0 or another whitewash? Will the matches even last the five days?
Those are the questions most South Africans are asking about the West Indies series that starts in Centurion on Wednesday.
South Africa, despite a changing of the guard, boast a very good Test side. The West Indies, patently, do not. Everyone expects a one-sided series, yet there are elements in both teams that suggest the series could be competitive – at least in phases.
The West Indies are, as Hashim Amla explained recently, an explosive side capable of playing a “colourful” brand of cricket. The trouble is, that sort of brand works best in the limited-overs formats, where examinations of technique, resilience and patience are, well, limited.
Over the course of 15 sessions of a Test match, there may well be periods where the West Indies dominate. They may even emerge the better team on a particular day. However, can they sustain any dominance over the course of two or three days? Their recent record suggests not.
Only twice in the past decade have they beaten one of the top eight Test-playing nations – England in 2009, when they won a five-match series 1-0, and then against New Zealand two years ago, when they won both matches in a two-game series on home soil.
Their record in South Africa is dreadful – one win from 12 Tests, with just one draw and 10 defeats. That victory, though, did come on their last tour here, in Port Elizabeth, which this season hosts the “Boxing Day” Test, so it may rekindle some good memories for some of the players.
Skipper Denesh Ramdin, Marlon Samuels, Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Jerome Taylor were all part of the side that pulled off a shock 128-run win at St George’s Park seven seasons ago.
Darren Sammy, Dwayne Bravo and Chris Gayle were also in that side, and, if they and Darren Bravo had been part of the current tour party, then perhaps the series would be more competitive.
The West Indies will be heavily reliant on Samuels and Chanderpaul for their runs on this tour.
Ironically, Samuels has missed the West Indies’ last four Tests owing to poor form, though his confidence was lifted by an aggressive double century in the tourists’ sole warm-up game in Benoni last week.
“Staying patient, backing yourself and playing your shots,” said Samuels about how his fellow batsmen must combat the much-vaunted South African attack.
In a tick to days of yore, the West Indies’ strength is in their group of fast bowlers, who will see some areas of vulnerability in the home side that they may want to exploit.
In Taylor and Kemar Roach, they have a pair of excellent and hard-working new-ball bowlers who will be backed by a combination of youthful quicks – Shannon Gabriel, Jason Holder and Sheldon Cottrell. Cottrell would be favourite to start at SuperSport Park, whatever makeup they choose for the starting XI – three seam bowlers plus spinner Sulieman Benn or four seamers.
“The pitches here bounce a bit more and I think we have the skill in the fast bowling department to do extremely well,” said Samuels.
Though Amla, AB de Villiers and Faf du Plessis make for a commanding triumvirate, the rest of the South African batting line-up could be made to look fragile.
Alviro Petersen has passed 50 just once in his last 10 Test innings, and JP Duminy’s absence means the lower middle order is very inexperienced, with Quinton de Kock having played just four Tests and Stiaan Van Zyl likely to make his debut on Wednesday.
“We are almost a developing Test team with a few new guys” was how Amla described the group. It is very much a rebuilding phase for the team. Next year South Africa head to Bangladesh for two Tests in July and then a major Test series away to India and at home against England.
Getting some new players against weak opponents at home is an ideal opportunity to gently manage the transition. Amla has cautioned against complacency and if his players heed the captain’s warning then this should be another series in which they underline their status as Test cricket’s best team.