Cape Town — The almost plaintive plea from Siya Kolisi to Springbok fans to “not give up on us” probably said more about the state of his team than he intended, and I reckon if the Boks lose today in Sydney to the Wallabies (11.35am), there is a danger of the entire green-and-gold edifice crashing down in ruins.
This time last year, the Boks lost back-to-back Tests in Australia and they are on the brink of repeating that disaster, and when you consider that their next match is in Buenos Aires against the Kiwi-conquering Argentinians, then you will understand my concern.
Because after a return match against the Pumas in Durban, the Boks then finish the year with the intimidating task of facing England, France and Ireland on consecutive weekends in London, Paris and Dublin, with the only reprieve on their end-of-year tour being against Italy in Rome, although let’s not forget that Italy beat Wales in Cardiff last November, and the Welsh gave the Boks a torrid time on South African soil.
On current form, the Boks could lose three of those four games quite easily against genuine World Cup contenders, and to end the year with a less than 50 percent win ratio — they are currently on 50 percent with three wins and three losses — would be disastrous ahead of a World Cup year.
I know I am painting a picture of doom and gloom, but there was always a danger of things going pear-shaped when Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber produced a painstaking plan for this year that would see over 30 players having their game time mapped out for them over the 13 matches scheduled for this year.
The team selections and the game time for each individual have been predetermined, and while we understand what Nienaber is trying to do — stack up match fit, quality depth in each position prior to the World Cup — the problem is that if you hit a losing spiral, then the best laid plans of mice and men go for a ball of manure, never mind awry, with apologies to poet Robbie Burns.
And the Boks are on the brink of this after losing to Wales with a makeshift team in Bloemfontein, getting their selections badly wrong in the second Test against the All Blacks, and then failing to pitch up at the races in Adelaide last week.
If the Boks had played their best team every match this year I reckon they would be unbeaten and any coach in any sport will tell you that it is MUCH easier to tinker here and there with the game plan and in one or two positions when you are riding winning momentum.
If the Boks lose today in Sydney it will be their fourth consecutive loss to Australia in just over a year — and the Aussies are not even acknowledged to be World Cup contenders — and the Boks will go to Argentina with their confidence shot to shreds.
The funny thing is, though, that possibly through injuries more than anything else, I reckon the Boks have one of their better line-ups in action today.
The pack is rock solid — I like Kitshoff and Marx starting in the front row and Wiese and Mostert back in the loose trio — and in the two most important positions in the backline —10 and 15 — they have their most in-form playmakers in Willemse and Le Roux.
And psychologically, Kolisi’s charges are in that familiar territory that usually produces a win — backs against the wall and written off.
I actually think they will win, but heaven help them if they don’t…
Springboks:
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff;
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Kwagga Smith, 20 Duane Vermeulen, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Frans Steyn, 23 Warrick
Australia:
15 Reece Hodge, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Jed Holloway, 5 Matt Philip, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga'a, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16-Dave Porecki, 17-Scott Sio, 18-Taniela Tupou, 19-Darcy Swain, 20-Rob Leota, 21-Pete Samu, 22-Jake Gordon, 23-Andrew Kellaway
IOL Sport