Cape Town - Will he stay or will he go? That is the burning question in South African rugby as Springbok coach Allister Coetzee finally takes responsibility for his team’s poor displays when his performance review begins on Tuesday. The Boks are languishing at sixth in the world rankings after a horror start to Coetzee’s tenure as the national team boss, with eight defeats in 12 Tests – the worst SA record in a calendar year.
Coetzee will present his report to a SA Rugby committee comprising of deputy president Francois Davids, vice president James Stofberg and Exco members Pat Kuhn and Kevin de Klerk about why the Boks are in such a parlous state, and what attempts he made to prevent it from happening.
But whichever way we slice it and dice it, things are not looking good for Coetzee to continue in the hot seat. Apart from the obvious shortcomings in terms of results, there has been little to enthuse about with the Boks this year. They were fortunate to hold on for a 2-1 series win over Ireland in June, and there were historic defeats to Argentina and Italy away from home.
In addition to the disastrous 57-15 loss to the All Blacks in Durban, the Boks finished third in the Rugby Championship.
There was no real progress with regards to the game plan, and Coetzee’s selections were all over the place as he kept faith with out-of-form or out-of-position players.
After the Italy debacle, Coetzee suddenly changed tack and tried to create the impression that he was starting the building process for the 2019 World Cup by picking a young side in the final Test of the year against Wales.
But SA Rugby are unlikely to fall for that ploy. Independent Media understands that firing Coetzee and his management team is still very much an option on the table for the organisation.
Despite recent reports about a huge payout possibly preventing them from letting Coetzee go, that is not necessarily the case, with SA Rugby set to follow a strict HR process in coming to a final decision.
Whether Coetzee had a performance clause in his contract or not, SA Rugby may feel that he cannot take the team forward from their current state and could opt to bring in someone else.
It is believed that appointing a director of rugby above Coetzee is another avenue SA Rugby are considering to try and fix Bok rugby, if they do decide to keep him on. Otherwise, there could even be a new coach and a new director of rugby in 2017.
The last resort is to retain Coetzee and bring in a whole new coaching staff. That is one of the points the 53-year-old is likely to raise on Tuesday, as he only brought in Matt Proudfoot on his own accord after being appointed in April, just two months before the Ireland series.
The issue with a director of rugby is that it should ideally be someone who has seen and done it all at Test level, to add credibility to the responsibilities of technically being Coetzee’s boss. That would rule out the likes of Rassie Erasmus and Brendan Venter, who have been mentioned in recent reports as possible replacements for Coetzee.
Erasmus couldn’t handle the public pressure of the head coaching job at the Stormers, which is why he promoted Coetzee in 2010 and played more of a director role at WP, while Venter hasn’t held a Super Rugby head coach post, although he has been in charge at a few European clubs such as Saracens and London Irish.
And it is understood that Venter wouldn’t be interested in a permanent position anyway as he is committed to his medical practice.
So, if SA Rugby go the director route, it could result in a foreigner coming in. Dave Rennie was mentioned in a media report, but he is contracted to Scottish club Glasgow once he finishes at the Chiefs next year.
Experienced New Zealander Wayne Smith is someone who is admired in SA Rugby circles, but he is believed to have a watertight contract as an assistant coach to Steve Hansen at the All Blacks.
A final decision on Coetzee’s future is not expected anytime soon, and the matter may even drag into late January. The man himself, though, forged ahead with his work as he held a follow-up indaba with the Super Rugby coaches on Monday following the October meeting to create a “strategic blueprint for South African rugby”.
Attended by the Bok coaching staff and the six SA Super Rugby mentors, topics such as the 2016 season, player contracting, player retention and succession planning were discussed.
“The blueprint for SA Rugby is now at an advanced stage, and the decisions from today’s meeting will be incorporated in a document which we will finalise early next year. We discussed certain skill-sets and fundamentals which will ensure players meet the required Springbok standards,” said Coetzee.
“We also looked at the 2017 international calendar, with the aim to optimise preparation time of the Springboks, and presented the outcomes of the conditioning workshop held last week.”