After the elation, now the reality. The African Nations Cup draw filled South Africans with hope that their side could, for the first time in 10 years, progress beyond the first round of the competition, with Bafana Bafana set to take on teams like Cape Verde, Angola and Morocco in next year’s tournament.
There had been genuine fears from locals that, should the luck of the draw go against the national side, they would witness yet another embarrassing episode, similar to the one seen during World Cup 2010, when Bafana became the first hosts not to make the knockout phase.
Thankfully, SA were able to avoid big guns such as Nigeria or Mali and Algeria, and have instead been pitted against teams they have beaten before. That none of Cape Verde, Angola or most surprisingly Morocco have ever tasted victory against Bafana is obvious cause for optimism, but such optimism should in no way be elevated to premature celebration.
It would be foolhardy of anyone to assume Bafana’s progression into the knockout phase of the tournament which begins in January is as good as secured on the basis of Wednesday’s draw in Durban.
Any analysis of Bafana’s chances has to take consideration of their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses, not merely a look at history.
For instance, while celebrating the fact that Bafana have never lost to Angola, we should not fail to acknowledge that when we last met them – at the Nations Cup in Ghana four years ago – it was they who progressed to the next round, while we finished bottom of Group D.
Carlos Alberto Parreira was coach then, and Bafana actually required a late Elrio van Heerden equaliser to steal a 1-1 draw. That was in the opening match, and it was Angola who managed to secure more points in subsequent games to progress.
This was the same story when we last played Morocco – at the 2004 Nations Cup in Tunisia.
We drew 1-1 in our final group fixture against the Moroccans, when victory would have put us through to the next stage at their expense. Bafana, having beaten Benin 2-0 in their opening game, had gone into this match on the back of a 4-0 drubbing against Nigeria.
A draw proved futile in the end. In fact, it was what Morocco required to finish top of the group, so there was no need for them to push for a win. Thus it is absolutely unwise to merely pride ourselves on meaningless unbeaten records, when we could not stop our opponents from achieving their own objectives.
Bafana’s most important game, for me, is the January 19 opener against Cape Verde. The islan-ders were, correctly, left perplexed when South Africans blew vuvuzelas and ululated after President Jacob Zuma – with a somewhat compromised hand co-ordination – drew their country to face the hosts in that first match.
Cape Verde could hardly understand what the celebrations were all about, given that they are ranked nine places above SA on the continent, and have knocked out no less a giant as powerful as Cameroon in qualifying.
South Africans retorted by saying they had defeated Cape Verde home and away during qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, and that the islan-ders should be easy fodder given that they are making their first Nations Cup appearance. Such shallow thinking could be detrimental to Bafana’s aim of getting out of the group, for it ignores the fact that Cape Verde are a vastly transformed side from when they last played us – all of seven years ago.
In fact we have no fresh experience of playing against any of our Group A opponents, with that clash against Angola at Ghana 2008 being most recent. Meanwhile, Bafana’s decline is well-documented. We go into next year’s event on the back of two failed attempts at qualifying for the Nations Cup, guided by a new coach who would have been in charge of fewer than 10 friendlies when it starts, while all our opponents have played competitively for the last 18 months.
The reality is that we have no basis to be so cocky.
Follow Matshe on Twitter@Nkareng