2016 was a momentous year which witnessed the realignment of global politics, writes Shannon Ebrahim.
It was the US election campaign
which dominated the headlines
this year, ending in the
victory of Donald Trump – a
development with cataclysmic
ramifications for the US and
the world.
While the nature of US
domestic politics is unlikely to be
the same again, Trump’s approach
to international relations and his
perspective towards certain world
leaders will alter US strategy.
It is the first time since World
War II that a US president-elect
has promised to reverse the
internationalism of its past
presidents.
Trump’s juggernaut to the
White House was characterised
by a campaign that appealed to
the struggling middle class, which
gravitated towards a leader who
promised to protect jobs and local
manufacturing.
Trump’s message
that he would rewrite the text of
international trade deals in the
interests of US workers struck a
chord with voters.
The most significant seachange
in America’s international
relations is likely to be its relations
with Russia that will see a new
collaboration on international
affairs and global conflicts.
This
has the potential to unleash positive
results, depending on whether
policies are guided by the principles
of human security, but could also
see the world descend into further
chaos if military solutions are
prioritised over political ones.
If the views of Trump’s
advisers on the Middle East are
translated into policy, we could see
the envisaged two-state solution
in Israel/Palestine fall by the
wayside.With the war in Syria
still raging, refugees flooding
into Europe, conflict escalating in
Turkey, Yemen and South Sudan,
and continual nuclear tests by
North Korea, there is likely to be
no honeymoon period for Trump in
international relations.
The decimation of Syria
A member of forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad stands with a civilian on the rubble of the Carlton Hotel, in the government controlled area of Aleppo. Picture: Reuters
The fifth year of civil war in Syria
escalated to unprecedented levels
of misery and destruction. Many
of Syria’s towns lie in ruins, and
over a million Syrian citizens are
living under siege – many unable to
access food and medical supplies.
In violation of all the international
rules of war, the tactics of “submit
or starve” became the order of the
day, and chemical weapons were
dropped on a number of Syrian
towns.
Syrian refugees that flooded
to the Turkish coastal city of
Gazientep to escape bombardment
and starvation spoke to journalists
this year about their loss of hope in
seeing an imminent end to the war,
and of the immense challenges that
lie ahead in eventually rebuilding
the country.
Most youngsters evaded the
tented refugee camps in Turkey and
made their way to other European
countries like Germany.
The human train of misery that
poured out of Syria this year turned
the Mediterranean into a virtual
graveyard.
The International
Organisation for Migration
estimates that by the beginning
of this month 4 699 migrants and
refugees lost their lives in the
Mediterranean, with over 350 573
entering Europe through Italy and
Greece.
While many came from Syria,
among the boatloads that perished
were also refugees and economic
migrants from Iraq, Afghanistan,
Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea.
The rise of the right in
Europe
The influx of refugees from
poor and often Muslim countries
has seen the rise of xenophobia
and right-wing extremism across
Europe.
The rise in popularity of
right-wing political figures such as
Marine le Pen has seen her ahead
in the polls in France, and may see
her ousting incumbent President
Francois Hollande in next year’s
presidential elections.
Austria’s right-wing politician
Norbert Hofer clinched 35 percent
of the vote this year, and had
brandished a gun on the campaign
trail as he fired up anti-immigrant
sentiment
Hungary’s Viktor Oban and
Slovakia’s Robert Fico have also
remained popular for defending
Christian culture against Muslims
and foreigners.
The right-wing
politician Geert Wilders in the
Netherlands has also been leading
in the polls, and has promised a
referendum on leaving the EU.
The rise of far right politics in
Europe suggests that the European
continent is moving away from
inclusive pluralistic societies,
which may become increasingly
Islamophobic. This will fuel the
sentiments that drive ideological
adherents to the Islamic State, and
could lead to increasingly lone wolf
and co-ordinated IS attacks across
Europe.
The Brexit victory
The decision by a majority of UK
voters to leave the EU was a shock
to Europe and the rest of the world,
and even to some of the Brexiteers.
The frustration of ordinary Britons
had been largely underestimated,
and has ushered in a new era of
isolationist policies whereby Britain
will focus internally on what is best
for Britain and not on what is best
for Europe as a region.
The success
of the Brexiteers can be understood
against the backdrop of the rise
of right-wing politics in Europe
more generally.
The struggling
middle class in Britain as well as
elsewhere in Europe is largely the
result of the failure of nation states
to manage the negative effects of
globalisation.
In the UK there are
deeply entrenched geographic
inequalities that have been made
worse by the loss of jobs to lower
wage destinations.
The favourable
response to the Brexit campaign
can be seen as a backlash against
the existing political establishment
and immigration.
Immigrants have
largely been blamed for seizing
jobs, driving down wages, and
overburdening the public service.
Turkey’s slide towards
authoritarianism
The attempted coup on July 15 in
Turkey set off a chain reaction that
has culminated in the decimation of
the influential Gulen movement in
the country, which was blamed for
the attempted coup.
The attempted
coup was carried out by a faction
within the Turkish armed forces.
The Turkish government’s
subsequent witch-hunt against all
members of the Gulen movement
and their purging from all arms
of government and positions of
authority, quickly became a slippery
slope towards acting against a broad
spectrum of domestic political
opposition. The goverment has
purged more than 110 000 officials,
including police officers, judges,
prosecutors, and educationists. A
total of 150 media outlets have been
closed down and more than 130
editors are being detained.
According to international
human rights organisations,
torture has also become rampant.
Turkey’s undemocratic practices
have led to extensive criticism by
the EU, compelling Turkey to seek
out new allies in the global arena,
particularly Russia and China.
This represents a realignment
of global politics of particular
significance given Turkey’s
geostrategic importance in the AsiaMiddle
East region.
It may also have implications for
the war in Syria, given that Turkey’s
policy has been driven by a desire
to oust President Bashar al-Assad
from power.
Warnings of genocide in
South Sudan
A soldier in South Sudan, where conflict has persisted. Picture: Reuters
In Africa, the most dramatic
developments in terms of peace
and security this year have been in
South Sudan, where the situation
has rapidly degenerated following
the collapse of the peace deal which
created a transitional government
of national unity.
It has become so dire that the
UN is warning of the possibility of
genocide.
The UN secretary-general
has sounded the alarm, warning
that there is a real risk of mass
atrocities, and stated that the
existing 14 000 peacekeepers would
be unable to prevent genocide.
Tens of thousands have already
been killed in the country’s three-year
civil war, and over 2 million
displaced.
The UN Security Council
has authorised an additional
Regional Protection Force of 4 000
troops from east Africa with a
stronger mandate to keep the peace,
although it is unclear where they
will be adequately capacitated
to do the job.
The conflict has
developed a distinctly ethnic tone,
with atrocities and gross abuses
of human rights being committed
by all sides. In many areas of the
country armed forces linked to the
government have been accused
of carrying out brutal campaigns
of rapes, extrajudicial killings,
abductions, torture, looting and the
burning of homes, according to a
UN panel of experts.
Many civilians living in UN
protection camps right next to UN
bases have been killed while the UN
commanders looked the other way.
This led to the dismissal of the
Kenyan commander of the UN
peacekeeping mission this year by
UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon.
Politics of fear in Burundi
The climate of fear in Burundi
and the ongoing political
persecution has driven hundreds of
thousands of Burundians to flee to
neighbouring countries.
At least 300 000 Burundians have
fled the country since the president
announced his intention to serve a
third term in April last year.
According to human rights
groups, more than 540 civilians
have been executed.
Africa’s infrastructure build
takes off
Elaborate plans for the continent’s
infrastructure build were developed
in 2015,but this year saw the
road map begin to take shape across
the continent.
The Forum on China Africa
co-operation in December
last year had pledged significant
resources to developing road, rail,
port and airport facilities on the
continent over the next three years.
By the third quarter of this year
the 753km Addis Ababa-Djibouti
railway became operational, and the
Mombasa-Nairobi railway will be
operational next year.
Plans to make South Africa the
production base for the Africa rail
network are also being implemented
which will significantly boost the
country’s manufacturing output.
Farewell to Fidel Castro
Cuban President Fidel Castro points during his lengthy speech before the UN General Assembly, in New York, in 1979. Picture: Associated Press
The death of Cuba’s long-time
leader Fidel Castro was one of the
significant single events of the past
year, which saw millions around
the globe paying tribute to the
international revolutionary, and the
Miami lobby in the US celebrated
his demise.
Castro’s legacy was
roundly debated, but his passing
also brought tributes to Cuba’s
immense contribution to Africa’s
liberation.
Cuba’s role in supporting
the liberation struggles against the
colonial powers in Algeria, Guinnea
Bissau, Angola, and South Africa
were extensively highlighted.
In southern Africa a general
consensus has emerged that Castro
played a decisive role in turning the
tide against the forces of apartheid.
* Ebrahim is Group Foreign
Editor