Shanti Aboobaker and Gaye Davis Political Bureau
A DECISION by Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to challenge President Jacob Zuma for the ANC’s top job will be more about him taking a principled position and less about his winning.
Insiders said yesterday that Motlanthe had agreed to stand against Zuma – and had told the ANC’s electoral commission so. But they made it clear he would make no public announcement because, according to ANC rules, that would be for the commission to announce.
ANC treasurer-general Mathews Phosa confirmed yesterday that he would stand for election as deputy ANC president against the Zuma slate’s Cyril Ramaphosa, while Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula said he would accept nomination as secretary-general, in contest with Gwede Mantashe.
Lobbyists pushing for leadership change are adamant Motlanthe has a chance of toppling Zuma, but the numbers are stacked against him.
Political analysts yesterday dismissed any possibility of Motlanthe winning against Zuma.
Motlanthe had made his position clear, said Professor Steven Friedman, director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy.
“He has decided he doesn’t think it is a necessary price to pay to be deputy president. He would rather go out as contesting the presidency. He believes there is a principle that if people nominate their candidate, they ought to have him stand.”
He said Motlanthe was prepared to not occupy one of the ANC’s top six positions until the party’s next elective conference in five years’ time.
Motlanthe’s candidacy showed that behind-the-scenes attempts to secure a deal in which Motlanthe would stand as deputy president on a Zuma slate had failed. Such a deal would have prevented battles over credentials at Mangaung after the provincial nominations process saw claims of vote-rigging and unfairness.
Friedman said Motlanthe, by agreeing to another term as Zuma’s deputy in the ANC, would have found himself restricted.
He said Motlanthe’s answer in a recent interview with the Business Day that he would go back and work with activists in the Congress of South African Students was an indication he had already made up his mind.
“(Motlanthe’s candidacy) won’t effect the outcome. Zuma is going to win comfortably. There’s no doubt about it.”
He said the views of big business and the church, which this week both spoke out calling for “introspection” by the ANC on the eve of its national conference, would have no bearing on the way delegates would vote.
“Branches nominate candidates and delegates go to vote. The idea you can ignore the results of the provincial nomination conferences is absurd,” he said.
Most branches had nominated Zuma, and “an awful lot of people” would not “be able to go home to their provinces again” if they voted differently in Mangaung.
Independent analyst and CNBC Africa anchor Karima Brown agreed that, based on the number of branch nominations, Zuma had the advantage over Motlanthe. “The conference is a conference of branches, not provinces,” she said.
In the event that Motlanthe lost the race for the presidency he could enter the race against Cyril Ramaphosa for deputy president, as he had been nominated for this position by the Zuma-supporting Northern Cape.
Ramaphosa, however, had most provincial and branch nominations, making it probable that Motlanthe would lose that contest.
“Then Mr Motlanthe would exit the top six, where he has served for the last 15 years,” Brown said.
But it was likely that Zuma would return as president of the ANC, in which case it was “really possibility” that there would be a cabinet re-shuffle next year when Motlanthe would be removed.