Cape Town - It seems South Africans can breathe a sigh of relief as Eskom plans to maintain load shedding at Stage 2 this winter.
The announcement comes after 30 days in which Eskom did not implement load shedding – a sign that things might be improving at the national power utility.
Newly appointed Eskom CEO Dan Marokane briefed the media on Eskom’s State of the System and Winter Outlook yesterday.
He said the forecast was made in anticipation of the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) reaching 14 000MW during the winter, down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year.
“For winter 2024, the likely scenario from our assumptions is that load shedding will be maintained within Stage 2 at most. In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may occasionally go to Stage 5, but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet and load shedding will stay within Stage 2,” said Marokane.
He said this is on the back of the decrease in the backline unreliability capacity reduction of 1 000MW, “which is what we use for baseline assumptions”.
Marokane said that although the reduction may look minimal, it is critical for managing the intensity of load shedding.
“What is really important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for the UCLF number is lower by 1 000 MW.
“When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look like a big number, but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load shedding, being able to bank that capacity is an important aspect,” he said.
The energy availability factor has improved by 10% over the past year, from about 51% to 61%. This, Eskom said, is the result of a focus on maintenance, which has improved the reliability of its generation fleet.
“When you look at the time period between the last winter and now, you can actually see the reduction in unplanned losses — a 9% drop. It is mostly coming from the priority stations that were targeted as focal points,” said Marokane.
He said Eskom also had the benefit of the early return of the four Kusile Power Station units that were out.
“The losses are averaging around 14.2GW. Our focus on targets in this financial year is to keep this below 14GW. This is where the first capacity release is coming from.
“The decline is not as fast as we want, and our focal point this year is to deal with six or seven key areas that cause unreliability, and once we tackle them, we should be able to see ourselves comfortably at lower levels than this,” he said.
Asked about the 30-day load-shedding suspension, Marokane said such an accomplishment was previously viewed as a “non-event”. But in light of the extreme load shedding seen over the previous 24 months, “it’s been a good moment to reflect on”.