Davos - Open markets and
global trade have been blamed for job losses over the last
decade, but global CEOs say the real culprits are increasingly
machines.
And while business leaders gathered at the annual World
Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos relish the productivity gains
technology can bring, they warned this week that the collateral
damage to jobs needs to be addressed more seriously.
From taxi drivers to healthcare professionals, technologies
such as robotics, driverless cars, artificial intelligence and
3-D printing mean more and more types of jobs are at risk.
Adidas, for example, aims to use 3-D printing in
the manufacture of some running shoes.
"Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this revolution is
going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going
to affect everyone," said Meg Whitman, chief executive of
Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
So while some supporters of Donald Trump and Brexit may hope
new government policies will bring lost jobs back to America's
Rust Belt or Britain's industrial north, economists estimate 86
percent of US manufacturing job losses are actually down to
productivity, according to the WEF's annual risks report.
"Technology is the big issue and we don't acknowledge that,"
Mark Weinberger, chairman of consultancy EY, said on Thursday,
arguing there was a tendency to always blame trading partners.
Read also: LISTEN: Robots are here for your job
The political backdrop is prompting CEOs to take more
seriously the challenge of long-life training of workforces to
keep up with the exponential growth of technological advances.
"I think what we're reaching now is a time when we may have
to find alternative careers through our lifetime," Microsoft
Chief Executive Satya Nadella told Reuters.
Over the last decade, more jobs have been lost to technology
than any other factor, and John Drzik, head of global risk at
insurance broker Marsh, expects more of the same.
"That is going to raise challenges, particularly given the
political context," Drzik, who helped compile the WEF report,
said.
Compared to clamping down on immigration by tightening
borders, dealing with the impact of technology destroying jobs
is something that is perhaps even less easily controlled.
For while many advanced technologies remain more expensive
than low- or medium-skilled labour in the near term, the shift
is likely to accelerate as costs come down.
Widening gap
Technological advancements require governments, businesses
and academic institutions to develop more educated and highly
skilled workforces, executives in Davos said.
But this shift to skilled workers also widens the income gap
and fuels growing inequality.
Jonas Prising, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup,
noted that U.S. unemployment is only about 2 to 2.5 percent
among college-educated people but 9 or 10 percent among those
with low or no skills.
"The idea that we would ban automation as part of an
evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part
of the discussion," Prising said.
He pointed to policies in countries like Denmark and Italy,
where there is a focus on employability of workers.
"If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of
displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger," Procter &
Gamble Chief Executive David Taylor said.
Brawn and brain
The scope of the employment risk from what the WEF calls the
"fourth industrial revolution" which "blurs the lines between
the physical, digital, and biological spheres" is unclear.
A University of Oxford study in 2013 said nearly half of
US jobs were at risk, while in 2015 Forrester Research
predicted a net loss of only 7 percent by 2025, as some lost
jobs will be replaced with new ones.
Forrester predicts that by 2019, one-quarter of all job
tasks will be offloaded to software robots, physical robots, or
customer self-service automation.
Even the corner office may not be safe.
"CEOs feel reasonably confident we are not going to be
replaced by artificial intelligence," Inga Beale, CEO of the
Lloyd's of London insurance market, said.
"But I'm sure there will be a time!"